England · Championship

Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Stoke City 42.3% Draw 25.7% Sheffield Utd 32.0%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

65%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Stoke City: 11 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

W D W W L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Sheffield Utd

L W L W D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win42.3%

Draw25.7%

Sheffield Utd win32.0%

Over 1.5 goals84.8%

Over 2.5 goals62.9%

Over 3.5 goals40.7%

Both teams to score65.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.1%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.9%

Home or Draw (1X)66.7%

Both Halves Over 0.563.9%

Goal in Both Halves63.9%

Draw No Bet - Home56.7%

Draw or Away (X2)56.4%

Home Win43.6%

Draw No Bet - Away43.3%

Away Win33.3%

Draw23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal12.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.1%

Under 5.5 Goals89.0%

Over 1.5 Goals83.4%

Under 4.5 Goals77.3%

Over 2.5 Goals62.9%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 3.5 Goals59.3%

1-3 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.7%

Over 3.5 Goals40.7%

4+ Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals37.1%

1-2 Goals33.2%

Over 4.5 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.5%

Under 1.5 Goals16.6%

Over 5.5 Goals11.0%

Under 0.5 Goals3.9%

Exactly 0 Goals3.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.5%

Away Team to Score77.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.9%

Home Clean Sheet22.3%

Home Win to Nil18.4%

Away Clean Sheet17.5%

Away Win to Nil13.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.5%

Away Over 0.577.7%

Home Over 1.552.0%

Away Over 1.544.2%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Exactly 130.5%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Over 2.525.4%

Home 3+ Goals25.4%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 022.3%

Away Over 2.519.1%

Away 3+ Goals19.1%

Home Exactly 017.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)56.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away56.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)43.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 120.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 117.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.9%

Home to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.7%

Away to win by 29.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.9%

Away to win by 3+5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.9%

Home & Over 2.530.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.9%

Home & BTTS25.2%

Away & Over 2.523.1%

Away & BTTS19.7%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Home & No BTTS18.4%

Draw & Under 2.514.1%

Away & No BTTS13.6%

Home & Under 2.512.7%

Away & Under 2.510.2%

BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.8%

HT Under 1.557.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.4%

HT Over 1.542.8%

HT Draw37.3%

HT Home Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Away Win28.1%

HT Both Teams Score26.7%

HT/FT Home/Home26.7%

HT Under 0.523.2%

Equal Goals Each Half22.9%

HT/FT Away/Away19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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