England · Championship

Stoke City vs Swansea

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Stoke City 27.5% Draw 28.8% Swansea 43.7%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 55%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 5.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.2%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.2%

Exact-score model probability

Stoke City

W L

Form 1-0-1 Goals 2:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Swansea

L W

Form 1-0-1 Goals 3:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Stoke City win27.5%

Draw28.8%

Swansea win43.7%

Over 1.5 goals75.8%

Over 2.5 goals49.4%

Over 3.5 goals27.5%

Both teams to score54.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.4%

Draw or Away (X2)70.9%

Draw No Bet - Away60.9%

Home or Draw (1X)54.7%

Both Halves Over 0.553.4%

Goal in Both Halves53.4%

Away Win45.3%

Draw No Bet - Home39.1%

Home Win29.1%

Draw25.6%

Exactly 1 Goal18.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.7%

Over 0.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals87.0%

Over 1.5 Goals74.2%

Under 3.5 Goals72.5%

1-3 Goals65.4%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals49.4%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.5%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Over 3.5 Goals27.5%

4+ Goals27.5%

Under 1.5 Goals25.8%

Exactly 2 Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Over 4.5 Goals13.0%

Under 0.5 Goals7.1%

Exactly 0 Goals7.1%

Over 5.5 Goals5.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.7%

Home Team to Score68.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.9%

Away Clean Sheet31.7%

Away Win to Nil24.6%

Home Clean Sheet22.3%

Home Win to Nil15.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.7%

Home Over 0.568.3%

Away Over 1.544.2%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.7%

Away Exactly 225.1%

Away Exactly 022.3%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Over 2.519.1%

Away 3+ Goals19.1%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home77.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)70.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away70.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)45.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.8%

Away to win by 122.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away22.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.6%

Away to win by 213.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.9%

Away to win by 3+8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.0%

Home to win by 28.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.6%

Home to win by 3+3.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.4%

Away & Over 2.526.7%

Away & No BTTS24.6%

Away & BTTS20.7%

Draw & Under 2.519.3%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Away & Under 2.518.5%

Home & Over 2.516.3%

Home & No BTTS15.2%

Home & BTTS13.8%

Home & Under 2.512.8%

BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Draw & Over 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.7%

HT Under 1.566.5%

2nd Half More Goals43.2%

HT Draw41.9%

HT Away Win34.0%

HT Over 1.533.5%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.3%

HT/FT Away/Away27.2%

Equal Goals Each Half25.8%

HT Home Win24.0%

HT Both Teams Score19.8%

HT/FT Home/Home16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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