UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Celje

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Sturm Graz 73.4% Draw 15.2% Celje 11.4%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Celje: 6 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Sturm Graz

L L W W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Celje

D D W L D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sturm Graz win73.4%

Draw15.2%

Celje win11.4%

Over 1.5 goals93.7%

Over 2.5 goals80.9%

Over 3.5 goals63.1%

Both teams to score68.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

89.8%

Home or Draw (1X)

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.5%

Draw No Bet - Home86.0%

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Both Halves Over 0.578.1%

Goal in Both Halves78.1%

Home Win73.7%

Draw or Away (X2)25.8%

Draw No Bet - Away14.0%

Draw13.8%

Away Win12.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.2%

Over 3.5 Goals62.8%

4+ Goals62.8%

Under 4.5 Goals56.5%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.5%

Under 3.5 Goals37.2%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.5%

2-3 Goals29.9%

Over 5.5 Goals26.8%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

1-2 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score71.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.2%

Home Clean Sheet28.5%

Home Win to Nil27.2%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.1%

Away Over 0.571.0%

Home Over 2.559.5%

Home 3+ Goals59.5%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Away Over 1.535.4%

Away Exactly 028.5%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Home Exactly 113.9%

Away Over 2.513.1%

Away 3+ Goals13.1%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)63.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away63.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)35.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home35.7%

Home to win by 3+35.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.5%

Away to win by 17.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.563.5%

BTTS & Over 2.562.8%

Home & BTTS46.5%

Home & No BTTS27.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS12.5%

Home & Under 2.510.2%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

Away & BTTS8.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.5%

Draw & Under 2.56.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Away & No BTTS3.2%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Over 1.558.3%

HT Home Win57.5%

HT/FT Home/Home52.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.7%

HT Both Teams Score32.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Away Win14.9%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT/FT Away/Away6.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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