UEFA Champions League
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
📊 Our Prediction
Over 1.5 Goals
48% confidence
Over 2.5 - 65%
BTTS - 66%
🎯 Best Pick
Over 1.5 Goals
High scoring probability
⚠️ AIs disagree
▸ Show 2 alternatives
Both Teams Score (GG)
BTTS rate is high
Home or Draw (1X)
Sturm Graz home advantage
🤖 AI Match Analysis
Sturm Graz has a strong home record, scoring 4 goals in their last home match. Fenerbahçe has been in good form, with a 2-0 win over Sturm Graz in their last meeting. However, Sturm Graz has a good chance of scoring at home. With both teams having a high BTTS rate, a high scoring match is likely. The pi-ratings also suggest a close match. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high scoring probability.
Top Tip
Over 1
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
📈 Probability Breakdown
Sturm Graz win48.0%
Draw26.0%
Fenerbahçe win26.0%
Over 1.5 goals86.1%
Over 2.5 goals65.2%
Over 3.5 goals43.3%
Both teams to score66.2%
🎯 Full Market Board
Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.
Under 5.5 Cards
89.8%
Under 5.5 Goals
87.6%
Away +2.5 (Handicap)
87.2%
Match Result (11)
Home or Away (12)77.8%
Home or Draw (1X)70.9%
Both Halves Over 0.565.7%
Goal in Both Halves65.7%
Draw No Bet - Home62.6%
Draw or Away (X2)51.3%
Home Win48.7%
Draw No Bet - Away37.4%
Away Win29.1%
Draw22.2%
Exactly 1 Goal11.7%
Goals Over/Under (23)
Over 0.5 Goals96.5%
Under 5.5 Goals87.6%
Over 1.5 Goals84.8%
Under 4.5 Goals75.2%
Over 2.5 Goals65.2%
2-4 Goals60.0%
Under 3.5 Goals56.7%
1-3 Goals53.2%
Total Goals Even50.1%
Total Goals Odd49.9%
Over 3.5 Goals43.3%
4+ Goals43.3%
2-3 Goals41.6%
3-4 Goals40.4%
Under 2.5 Goals34.8%
1-2 Goals31.3%
Over 4.5 Goals24.8%
Exactly 3 Goals22.0%
Exactly 2 Goals19.6%
Under 1.5 Goals15.2%
Over 5.5 Goals12.4%
Under 0.5 Goals3.5%
Exactly 0 Goals3.5%
BTTS & Defence (8)
Home Team to Score85.3%
Away Team to Score76.4%
Both Teams Score (GG)65.2%
No Both Teams Score (NG)34.8%
Home Clean Sheet23.6%
Home Win to Nil20.1%
Away Clean Sheet14.7%
Away Win to Nil11.2%
Team Goals (14)
Home Over 0.585.3%
Away Over 0.576.4%
Home Over 1.557.1%
Away Over 1.542.3%
Away Exactly 134.1%
Home Over 2.530.1%
Home 3+ Goals30.1%
Home Exactly 128.2%
Home Exactly 227.0%
Away Exactly 224.6%
Away Exactly 023.6%
Away Over 2.517.7%
Away 3+ Goals17.7%
Home Exactly 014.7%
Handicap & Margin (60)
Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%
Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%
European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%
Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%
Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%
European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%
Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%
European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%
Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.2%
European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.2%
Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%
European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.0%
Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.2%
European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.2%
Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%
European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%
Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.5%
European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.5%
Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.9%
European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.9%
Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.3%
European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.3%
Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.7%
Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.1%
Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.5%
European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.5%
European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.2%
Home to win by 121.2%
European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%
Away to win by 116.0%
European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%
Home to win by 214.7%
Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%
European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%
Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.7%
European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.7%
Home to win by 3+12.7%
European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.4%
Away to win by 28.4%
European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.8%
Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%
European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.9%
Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.8%
European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.8%
Away to win by 3+4.8%
European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.3%
European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%
Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%
European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.6%
Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%
European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%
European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%
European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%
Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%
European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%
Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%
European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%
European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%
Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%
European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%
Combos (15)
BTTS & Over 2.555.5%
Home & Over 2.535.7%
Home & BTTS28.6%
No BTTS & Under 2.525.1%
Away & Over 2.520.5%
Home & No BTTS20.1%
Draw & BTTS18.7%
Away & BTTS17.9%
Draw & Under 2.513.1%
Home & Under 2.513.0%
Away & No BTTS11.2%
No BTTS & Over 2.59.7%
BTTS & Under 2.59.6%
Draw & Over 2.59.1%
Away & Under 2.58.6%
Half-Time & HT/FT (20)
HT Over 0.578.0%
HT Under 1.555.4%
2nd Half More Goals45.8%
HT Over 1.544.6%
HT Home Win38.1%
HT Draw36.2%
1st Half More Goals31.8%
HT/FT Home/Home30.5%
HT Both Teams Score27.6%
HT Away Win25.7%
Equal Goals Each Half22.5%
HT Under 0.522.0%
HT/FT Away/Away17.0%
HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%
HT/FT Draw/Draw11.6%
HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%
HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%
HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%
HT/FT Away/Home3.4%
HT/FT Home/Away2.3%
Corners (12)
Away Over 4.5 Corners85.5%
Away Most Corners84.7%
Over 8.5 Corners75.3%
Over 9.5 Corners64.1%
Under 11.5 Corners59.9%
Over 10.5 Corners52.0%
Under 10.5 Corners48.0%
Over 11.5 Corners40.1%
Under 9.5 Corners35.9%
Home Over 4.5 Corners27.5%
Under 8.5 Corners24.7%
Home Most Corners9.0%
Cards (9)
Under 5.5 Cards89.8%
Under 4.5 Cards78.7%
Over 2.5 Cards61.3%
Under 3.5 Cards61.0%
Over 3.5 Cards39.0%
Under 2.5 Cards38.7%
Over 4.5 Cards21.3%
Over 0.5 Red Cards12.7%
Over 5.5 Cards10.2%
How we predict:
Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.