UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Sturm Graz 63.1% Draw 20.8% Marseille 16.1%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.6%

Exact-score model probability

Sturm Graz

L L W W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Marseille

W W L L L L

Form 2-0-4 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sturm Graz win63.1%

Draw20.8%

Marseille win16.1%

Over 1.5 goals87.3%

Over 2.5 goals67.6%

Over 3.5 goals46.0%

Both teams to score62.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.4%

Home Over 0.5

90.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.8%

Home or Away (12)81.3%

Draw No Bet - Home78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.567.5%

Goal in Both Halves67.5%

Home Win64.1%

Draw or Away (X2)35.8%

Draw No Bet - Away21.1%

Draw18.7%

Away Win17.1%

Exactly 1 Goal10.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals86.2%

Under 5.5 Goals86.0%

Under 4.5 Goals72.9%

Over 2.5 Goals67.6%

2-4 Goals59.1%

Under 3.5 Goals54.0%

1-3 Goals50.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals46.0%

4+ Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals40.5%

2-3 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals32.4%

1-2 Goals29.3%

Over 4.5 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Exactly 2 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals14.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

Exactly 0 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.4%

Away Team to Score68.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.5%

Home Clean Sheet32.0%

Home Win to Nil28.9%

Away Clean Sheet9.6%

Away Win to Nil6.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.4%

Away Over 0.568.0%

Home Over 1.567.9%

Home Over 2.541.5%

Home 3+ Goals41.5%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 032.0%

Away Over 1.531.5%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Exactly 122.5%

Away Exactly 220.8%

Away Over 2.510.8%

Away 3+ Goals10.8%

Home Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.0%

Home to win by 3+23.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.2%

Home to win by 122.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 219.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.8%

Away to win by 110.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home10.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 24.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.3%

Home & Over 2.548.5%

Home & BTTS35.3%

Home & No BTTS28.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.2%

Home & Under 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS15.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.3%

Away & Over 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.3%

Away & BTTS10.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Away & No BTTS6.5%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.2%

HT Under 1.553.5%

HT Home Win48.5%

HT Over 1.546.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.1%

HT/FT Home/Home42.7%

HT Draw33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score26.2%

Equal Goals Each Half22.0%

HT Under 0.520.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT Away Win17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.9%

HT/FT Away/Away9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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