UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Rennes

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

69% confidence

Sturm Graz 68.8% Draw 16.2% Rennes 15.0%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Rennes: 6 points versus 13 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Sturm Graz

L L W W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

Rennes

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sturm Graz win68.8%

Draw16.2%

Rennes win15.0%

Over 1.5 goals95.0%

Over 2.5 goals83.7%

Over 3.5 goals67.4%

Both teams to score74.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.1%

HT Over 0.5

87.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Home or Draw (1X)83.9%

Draw No Bet - Home81.6%

Both Halves Over 0.580.5%

Goal in Both Halves80.5%

Home Win69.0%

Draw or Away (X2)30.5%

Draw No Bet - Away18.4%

Away Win15.6%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals83.3%

Under 5.5 Goals69.0%

Over 3.5 Goals67.0%

4+ Goals67.0%

Under 4.5 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 4.5 Goals48.3%

2-4 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals35.0%

Under 3.5 Goals33.0%

1-3 Goals31.5%

Over 5.5 Goals31.0%

2-3 Goals26.9%

Under 2.5 Goals16.7%

Exactly 3 Goals16.3%

1-2 Goals15.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.0%

Away Team to Score77.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.2%

Home Clean Sheet22.2%

Home Win to Nil21.2%

Away Clean Sheet4.5%

Away Win to Nil3.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.0%

Home Over 1.581.1%

Away Over 0.577.3%

Home Over 2.559.5%

Home 3+ Goals59.5%

Away Over 1.544.0%

Away Exactly 133.3%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 022.2%

Home Exactly 221.6%

Away Over 2.519.0%

Away 3+ Goals19.0%

Home Exactly 113.9%

Home Exactly 04.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)81.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away81.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.0%

Home to win by 3+32.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.0%

Away to win by 19.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 24.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.2%

Home & Over 2.561.1%

Home & BTTS47.8%

Home & No BTTS21.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS13.9%

Away & Over 2.513.0%

Away & BTTS12.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.2%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & No BTTS3.5%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.4%

HT Over 1.561.3%

HT Home Win54.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.9%

HT/FT Home/Home48.5%

HT Under 1.538.7%

HT Both Teams Score36.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT Away Win18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Under 0.512.6%

HT/FT Away/Away8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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