England · Premier League

Sunderland vs Arsenal

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Sunderland 15.2% Draw 30.0% Arsenal 54.7%

Over 2.5 - 38% BTTS - 29%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 14.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 13 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.7%

Exact-score model probability

Sunderland

W D W L W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 10:2 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 2

Sunderland 0wins ·1 draws ·Arsenal 1wins

Sunderland 0-3 ArsenalFeb 7, 2026

Sunderland 2-2 ArsenalNov 8, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sunderland win15.2%

Draw30.0%

Arsenal win54.7%

Over 1.5 goals61.3%

Over 2.5 goals38.4%

Over 3.5 goals14.7%

Both teams to score28.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

90.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.1%

Draw No Bet - Away87.9%

Home or Away (12)81.2%

Away Win71.4%

Both Halves Over 0.553.8%

Goal in Both Halves53.8%

Home or Draw (1X)28.6%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal18.5%

Draw No Bet - Home12.1%

Home Win9.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.6%

Over 0.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals86.7%

Over 1.5 Goals74.6%

Under 3.5 Goals72.1%

1-3 Goals65.1%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Under 2.5 Goals50.1%

Over 2.5 Goals49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals46.7%

1-2 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals36.6%

Over 3.5 Goals27.9%

4+ Goals27.9%

Under 1.5 Goals25.4%

Exactly 2 Goals24.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals13.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.9%

Exactly 0 Goals6.9%

Over 5.5 Goals5.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.2%

Away Clean Sheet54.3%

Away Win to Nil47.4%

Home Team to Score45.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.8%

Home Clean Sheet12.7%

Home Win to Nil5.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.2%

Away Over 1.561.0%

Home Exactly 054.3%

Home Over 0.545.7%

Away Over 2.534.0%

Away 3+ Goals34.0%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.2%

Away Exactly 012.7%

Home Over 1.512.5%

Home Exactly 210.1%

Home Over 2.52.4%

Home 3+ Goals2.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home89.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home75.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)71.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)53.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home53.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away46.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.3%

Away to win by 125.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away24.2%

Away to win by 3+24.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.9%

Away to win by 221.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away10.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.5%

Home to win by 17.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.9%

Home to win by 21.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS47.4%

Away & Over 2.542.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.541.4%

BTTS & Over 2.531.1%

Away & Under 2.529.0%

Away & BTTS24.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.8%

Draw & Under 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS11.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & No BTTS5.8%

Home & Under 2.55.5%

Home & Over 2.54.3%

Home & BTTS4.0%

Draw & Over 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.9%

HT Under 1.566.2%

HT Away Win51.1%

HT/FT Away/Away47.4%

2nd Half More Goals43.3%

HT Draw38.2%

HT Over 1.533.8%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.530.1%

Equal Goals Each Half25.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.6%

HT Both Teams Score14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.5%

HT Home Win10.7%

HT/FT Home/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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