UEFA Europa League

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Sunderland 8.8% Draw 15.7% AZ Alkmaar 75.5%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 10 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Sunderland

L W D W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

AZ Alkmaar

D W W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sunderland win8.8%

Draw15.7%

AZ Alkmaar win75.5%

Over 1.5 goals89.3%

Over 2.5 goals71.7%

Over 3.5 goals50.8%

Both teams to score57.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.1%

Draw or Away (X2)

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.1%

Draw No Bet - Away88.8%

Home or Away (12)85.7%

Away Win76.1%

Both Halves Over 0.570.7%

Goal in Both Halves70.7%

Home or Draw (1X)23.7%

Draw14.1%

Draw No Bet - Home11.2%

Home Win9.6%

Exactly 1 Goal9.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals88.3%

Under 5.5 Goals83.0%

Over 2.5 Goals71.5%

Under 4.5 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals56.9%

Over 3.5 Goals50.7%

4+ Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals49.3%

1-3 Goals46.6%

3-4 Goals40.1%

2-3 Goals37.6%

Over 4.5 Goals31.3%

Under 2.5 Goals28.5%

1-2 Goals25.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 5.5 Goals17.0%

Exactly 2 Goals16.8%

Under 1.5 Goals11.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.7%

Home Team to Score60.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Away Clean Sheet39.8%

Away Win to Nil37.3%

Home Clean Sheet6.1%

Home Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.7%

Away Over 1.576.6%

Home Over 0.560.0%

Away Over 2.552.7%

Away 3+ Goals52.7%

Home Exactly 039.8%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Home Over 1.523.4%

Away Exactly 117.1%

Home Exactly 216.8%

Home Over 2.56.6%

Home 3+ Goals6.6%

Away Exactly 06.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home81.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)64.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home64.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away55.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)43.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home43.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)35.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away35.1%

Away to win by 3+35.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home23.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 220.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.2%

Away to win by 120.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw10.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 16.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.3%

Home to win by 22.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.7%

Home to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.559.7%

BTTS & Over 2.550.1%

Away & BTTS38.7%

Away & No BTTS37.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.4%

Away & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Draw & Under 2.58.7%

Home & Over 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Home & BTTS6.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Home & No BTTS3.7%

Home & Under 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.2%

HT Away Win57.9%

HT/FT Away/Away53.8%

HT Under 1.550.2%

HT Over 1.549.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.8%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw29.9%

HT Both Teams Score24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.2%

HT Under 0.518.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.8%

HT Home Win12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.5%

HT/FT Home/Home5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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