England · Premier League

Sunderland vs Brighton

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Sunderland 29.8% Draw 29.0% Brighton 41.2%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 13.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brighton: 7 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.1%

Exact-score model probability

Sunderland

L L W D W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:10 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.67

Brighton

W W D L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 16:5 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 2

Sunderland 0wins ·1 draws ·Brighton 1wins

Sunderland 0-1 BrightonMar 14, 2026

Sunderland 0-0 BrightonDec 20, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sunderland win29.8%

Draw29.0%

Brighton win41.2%

Over 1.5 goals73.9%

Over 2.5 goals63.8%

Over 3.5 goals25.6%

Both teams to score66.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.5%

Over 0.5 Goals

90.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)72.0%

Draw or Away (X2)69.7%

Home or Draw (1X)58.3%

Draw No Bet - Away57.9%

Both Halves Over 0.546.6%

Goal in Both Halves46.6%

Draw No Bet - Home42.1%

Away Win41.7%

Home Win30.3%

Draw28.0%

Exactly 1 Goal22.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.9%

Under 4.5 Goals91.5%

Over 0.5 Goals90.1%

Under 3.5 Goals79.7%

1-3 Goals69.8%

Over 1.5 Goals67.2%

Under 2.5 Goals59.3%

2-4 Goals58.7%

Total Goals Even50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

1-2 Goals49.4%

2-3 Goals46.9%

Over 2.5 Goals40.7%

Under 1.5 Goals32.8%

3-4 Goals32.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals20.4%

Over 3.5 Goals20.3%

4+ Goals20.3%

Under 0.5 Goals9.9%

Exactly 0 Goals9.9%

Over 4.5 Goals8.5%

Over 5.5 Goals3.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score72.0%

Home Team to Score64.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.6%

Away Clean Sheet35.3%

Home Clean Sheet28.0%

Away Win to Nil25.4%

Home Win to Nil18.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.572.0%

Home Over 0.564.7%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Over 1.536.3%

Away Exactly 135.7%

Home Exactly 035.3%

Away Exactly 028.0%

Home Over 1.527.9%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Home Exactly 219.1%

Away Over 2.513.6%

Away 3+ Goals13.6%

Home Over 2.58.8%

Home 3+ Goals8.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away69.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.0%

Away to win by 123.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 212.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.2%

Home to win by 28.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.5%

Away to win by 3+6.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.3%

Home to win by 3+3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.2%

BTTS & Over 2.533.5%

Away & No BTTS25.4%

Draw & Under 2.523.0%

Away & Over 2.521.1%

Away & Under 2.520.6%

Home & No BTTS18.1%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Away & BTTS16.2%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Home & Over 2.514.6%

BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Home & BTTS12.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.3%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.1%

HT Over 0.564.7%

HT Draw45.4%

2nd Half More Goals41.7%

HT Under 0.535.3%

HT Away Win30.7%

1st Half More Goals30.3%

Equal Goals Each Half28.0%

HT Over 1.527.9%

HT/FT Away/Away24.4%

HT Home Win23.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.4%

HT/FT Home/Home17.0%

HT Both Teams Score16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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