England · Premier League

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Sunderland 28.7% Draw 28.2% Chelsea 43.1%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 58%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 1 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sunderland 2 wins, 0 draws, Chelsea 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.7%

Exact-score model probability

Sunderland

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:14 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.33

Chelsea

W L W W L D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 2

Sunderland 2wins ·0 draws ·Chelsea 0wins

Sunderland 2-1 ChelseaMay 24, 2026

Sunderland 2-1 ChelseaOct 25, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sunderland win28.7%

Draw28.2%

Chelsea win43.1%

Over 1.5 goals74.3%

Over 2.5 goals61.2%

Over 3.5 goals26.3%

Both teams to score58.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.5%

Draw or Away (X2)69.1%

Both Halves Over 0.561.6%

Goal in Both Halves61.6%

Draw No Bet - Away59.6%

Home or Draw (1X)54.4%

Away Win45.6%

Draw No Bet - Home40.4%

Home Win30.9%

Draw23.5%

Exactly 1 Goal13.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Under 5.5 Goals90.5%

Over 1.5 Goals81.6%

Under 4.5 Goals79.7%

Under 3.5 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.0%

1-3 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.0%

Under 2.5 Goals40.0%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.6%

4+ Goals37.6%

1-2 Goals35.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score82.1%

Home Team to Score74.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.5%

Away Clean Sheet25.1%

Away Win to Nil20.6%

Home Clean Sheet17.9%

Home Win to Nil13.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.582.1%

Home Over 0.574.9%

Away Over 1.551.4%

Home Over 1.540.2%

Home Exactly 134.7%

Away Exactly 130.8%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Home Exactly 025.1%

Away Over 2.524.9%

Away 3+ Goals24.9%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Away Exactly 017.9%

Home Over 2.516.2%

Home 3+ Goals16.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away69.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)54.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home54.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)45.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.4%

Away to win by 121.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.8%

Away to win by 213.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.4%

Away to win by 3+10.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.9%

Home to win by 28.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.9%

Home to win by 3+4.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.550.8%

Away & Over 2.531.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.3%

Away & BTTS25.0%

Away & No BTTS20.6%

Home & Over 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & BTTS17.5%

Draw & Under 2.515.2%

Away & Under 2.514.4%

Home & No BTTS13.4%

BTTS & Under 2.510.7%

Home & Under 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.3%

HT Under 1.559.3%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.7%

HT Draw38.2%

HT Away Win35.5%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT/FT Away/Away28.0%

HT Home Win26.3%

HT Both Teams Score25.0%

HT Under 0.524.7%

Equal Goals Each Half23.5%

HT/FT Home/Home18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions