England · Premier League

Sunderland vs Leeds

Full time · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

34% confidence

Sunderland 33.2% Draw 32.5% Leeds 34.3%

Over 2.5 - 70% BTTS - 71%

✓ Pick was correct (0:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leeds: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Sunderland 1 wins, 1 draws, Leeds 0 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Sunderland

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Leeds

D L D W L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

Sunderland 1wins ·1 draws ·Leeds 0wins

Sunderland 1-0 LeedsMar 3, 2026

Sunderland 1-1 LeedsDec 28, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Sunderland win33.2%

Draw32.5%

Leeds win34.3%

Over 1.5 goals63.3%

Over 2.5 goals70.2%

Over 3.5 goals16.2%

Both teams to score71.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.5%

Home or Draw (1X)69.6%

Draw No Bet - Home59.7%

Both Halves Over 0.557.8%

Goal in Both Halves57.8%

Draw or Away (X2)54.9%

Home Win45.1%

Draw No Bet - Away40.3%

Away Win30.4%

Draw24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal16.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.7%

Under 4.5 Goals83.5%

Over 1.5 Goals78.3%

Under 3.5 Goals67.3%

1-3 Goals61.7%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals55.0%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals45.0%

1-2 Goals39.4%

3-4 Goals38.5%

Over 3.5 Goals32.7%

4+ Goals32.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals16.5%

Over 5.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score79.9%

Away Team to Score72.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.4%

Home Clean Sheet27.9%

Home Win to Nil22.3%

Away Clean Sheet20.1%

Away Win to Nil14.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.579.9%

Away Over 0.572.1%

Home Over 1.547.7%

Away Over 1.536.5%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 132.2%

Away Exactly 027.9%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Home Over 2.521.8%

Home 3+ Goals21.8%

Home Exactly 020.1%

Away Over 2.513.8%

Away 3+ Goals13.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.0%

Home to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.5%

Home to win by 3+9.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.546.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.533.5%

Home & Over 2.528.9%

Home & BTTS22.8%

Home & No BTTS22.3%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Away & Over 2.518.7%

Draw & Under 2.517.1%

Home & Under 2.516.2%

Away & BTTS16.0%

Away & No BTTS14.5%

Away & Under 2.511.7%

BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.7%

HT Under 1.562.8%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT Draw39.9%

HT Over 1.537.2%

HT Home Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Home/Home27.4%

HT Under 0.527.3%

HT Away Win25.5%

Equal Goals Each Half24.6%

HT Both Teams Score22.5%

HT/FT Away/Away17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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