England · League Cup

Swansea vs Birmingham

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

82% confidence

Swansea 82.1% Draw 11.5% Birmingham 6.4%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

Form 1-0-0 Goals 3:1 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1

Birmingham

Form 0-1-0 Goals 1:1 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win82.1%

Draw11.5%

Birmingham win6.4%

Over 1.5 goals94.1%

Over 2.5 goals81.9%

Over 3.5 goals64.6%

Both teams to score61.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

88.8%

HT Over 0.5

86.5%

Home Over 1.5

85.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.2%

Draw No Bet - Home92.2%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Home Win81.9%

Both Halves Over 0.579.0%

Goal in Both Halves79.0%

Draw or Away (X2)17.2%

Draw10.3%

Draw No Bet - Away7.8%

Away Win6.9%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals92.7%

Over 2.5 Goals81.2%

Under 5.5 Goals72.1%

Over 3.5 Goals64.0%

4+ Goals64.0%

Under 4.5 Goals55.1%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-4 Goals47.8%

Over 4.5 Goals44.9%

3-4 Goals36.2%

Under 3.5 Goals36.0%

1-3 Goals33.9%

2-3 Goals28.7%

Over 5.5 Goals27.9%

Under 2.5 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

1-2 Goals16.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.6%

Under 1.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score62.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.4%

Home Clean Sheet36.5%

Home Win to Nil35.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.2%

Away Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.585.0%

Home Over 2.566.1%

Home 3+ Goals66.1%

Away Over 0.562.6%

Away Exactly 036.5%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Away Over 1.526.2%

Home Exactly 218.9%

Away Exactly 218.2%

Home Exactly 111.0%

Away Over 2.58.0%

Away 3+ Goals8.0%

Home Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)81.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)70.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away70.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.2%

Home to win by 3+46.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 116.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.570.9%

BTTS & Over 2.556.6%

Home & BTTS46.6%

Home & No BTTS35.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.9%

Home & Under 2.511.0%

Draw & BTTS9.2%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

Away & Over 2.55.2%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Away & BTTS4.9%

BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Away & No BTTS2.0%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.5%

HT Home Win64.8%

HT/FT Home/Home61.5%

HT Over 1.559.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score28.6%

HT Draw24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT Under 0.513.5%

HT Away Win10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Swansea win10%

Draw45%

Birmingham win45%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Birmingham

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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