England · Championship

Swansea vs Burnley

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Swansea 82.5% Draw 13.4% Burnley 4.1%

Over 2.5 - 62% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 14.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Swansea: 11 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.7%

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

L D W W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Burnley

D L D L L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:13 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win82.5%

Draw13.4%

Burnley win4.1%

Over 1.5 goals83.6%

Over 2.5 goals62.0%

Over 3.5 goals39.7%

Both teams to score38.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.0%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)95.0%

Draw No Bet - Home94.5%

Home or Away (12)87.9%

Home Win83.1%

Both Halves Over 0.563.2%

Goal in Both Halves63.2%

Draw or Away (X2)16.7%

Exactly 1 Goal13.0%

Draw11.9%

Draw No Bet - Away5.5%

Away Win4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Under 5.5 Goals89.6%

Over 1.5 Goals82.7%

Under 4.5 Goals78.2%

Over 2.5 Goals61.8%

2-4 Goals60.9%

Under 3.5 Goals60.4%

1-3 Goals56.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals43.1%

3-4 Goals40.1%

Over 3.5 Goals39.6%

4+ Goals39.6%

Under 2.5 Goals38.2%

1-2 Goals33.9%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.8%

Exactly 2 Goals20.9%

Under 1.5 Goals17.3%

Over 5.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals4.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.8%

Home Clean Sheet59.9%

Home Win to Nil55.9%

Away Team to Score39.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.2%

Away Clean Sheet6.8%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Home Over 1.574.8%

Away Exactly 059.9%

Home Over 2.550.2%

Home 3+ Goals50.2%

Away Over 0.539.9%

Away Exactly 130.6%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Home Exactly 118.2%

Away Over 1.59.3%

Away Exactly 27.8%

Home Exactly 06.8%

Away Over 2.51.5%

Away 3+ Goals1.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)59.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away59.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.9%

Home to win by 3+39.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw22.8%

Home to win by 222.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.4%

Home to win by 120.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 13.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.8%

Away to win by 20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.557.4%

Home & No BTTS55.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.4%

BTTS & Over 2.531.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.3%

Home & BTTS27.2%

Home & Under 2.525.7%

Draw & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & BTTS7.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Draw & Over 2.52.2%

Away & Over 2.52.2%

Away & BTTS2.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.3%

HT Home Win62.3%

HT/FT Home/Home59.9%

HT Under 1.557.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.2%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Draw30.7%

HT Under 0.523.7%

Equal Goals Each Half23.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.9%

HT Both Teams Score14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT Away Win7.0%

HT/FT Away/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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