England · Championship

Swansea vs Norwich

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Swansea 76.4% Draw 13.9% Norwich 9.7%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Swansea: 13 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Norwich

L L W W L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 15:12 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win76.4%

Draw13.9%

Norwich win9.7%

Over 1.5 goals94.1%

Over 2.5 goals81.6%

Over 3.5 goals64.2%

Both teams to score67.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.2%

Draw No Bet - Home88.2%

Home or Away (12)86.8%

Both Halves Over 0.578.7%

Goal in Both Halves78.7%

Home Win76.5%

Draw or Away (X2)22.8%

Draw12.6%

Draw No Bet - Away11.8%

Away Win10.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.9%

Over 2.5 Goals81.1%

Under 5.5 Goals72.2%

Over 3.5 Goals63.8%

4+ Goals63.8%

Under 4.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals48.2%

Over 4.5 Goals44.7%

3-4 Goals36.4%

Under 3.5 Goals36.2%

1-3 Goals34.4%

2-3 Goals29.1%

Over 5.5 Goals27.8%

Under 2.5 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals17.3%

1-2 Goals17.1%

Exactly 2 Goals11.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score69.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.8%

Home Clean Sheet30.4%

Home Win to Nil29.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 1.582.8%

Away Over 0.569.0%

Home Over 2.562.2%

Home 3+ Goals62.2%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.533.0%

Away Exactly 030.4%

Away Exactly 221.3%

Home Exactly 220.6%

Home Exactly 112.7%

Away Over 2.511.6%

Away 3+ Goals11.6%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away87.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away60.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home58.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away40.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home39.2%

Home to win by 3+39.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 16.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.566.4%

BTTS & Over 2.561.6%

Home & BTTS47.3%

Home & No BTTS29.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.6%

Draw & BTTS11.4%

Home & Under 2.510.2%

Away & Over 2.57.9%

Away & BTTS7.5%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Draw & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.3%

HT Home Win60.0%

HT Over 1.559.1%

HT/FT Home/Home55.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.7%

HT Draw26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.1%

HT Under 0.513.7%

HT Away Win13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.9%

HT/FT Away/Away5.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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