England · Championship

Swansea vs Sheffield Utd

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

86% confidence

Swansea 86.3% Draw 8.4% Sheffield Utd 5.3%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Sheffield Utd: 6 points versus 7 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

W L W

Form 2-0-1 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Sheffield Utd

D W W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win86.3%

Draw8.4%

Sheffield Utd win5.3%

Over 1.5 goals97.4%

Over 2.5 goals90.6%

Over 3.5 goals78.7%

Both teams to score69.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

91.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.0%

Home or Draw (1X)91.6%

Home or Away (12)89.4%

Both Halves Over 0.586.9%

Goal in Both Halves86.9%

Home Win84.0%

Draw or Away (X2)13.0%

Draw7.6%

Draw No Bet - Away6.0%

Away Win5.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.2%

Over 2.5 Goals87.9%

Over 3.5 Goals76.3%

4+ Goals76.3%

Over 4.5 Goals60.5%

Under 5.5 Goals56.7%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

Over 5.5 Goals43.3%

Under 4.5 Goals39.5%

2-4 Goals33.7%

3-4 Goals27.3%

Under 3.5 Goals23.7%

1-3 Goals20.3%

2-3 Goals17.9%

Under 2.5 Goals12.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.6%

1-2 Goals8.7%

Exactly 2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score67.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.2%

Home Clean Sheet29.2%

Home Win to Nil28.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.4%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.589.5%

Home Over 2.576.7%

Home 3+ Goals76.7%

Away Over 0.567.8%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Away Over 1.532.7%

Away Exactly 029.2%

Away Exactly 221.0%

Home Exactly 212.8%

Away Over 2.511.7%

Away 3+ Goals11.7%

Home Exactly 16.0%

Home Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away74.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)59.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away59.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)55.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home55.0%

Home to win by 3+55.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)42.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away42.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home37.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)25.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away25.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home22.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.4%

Home to win by 216.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.6%

Away to win by 13.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.578.3%

BTTS & Over 2.564.6%

Home & BTTS55.2%

Home & No BTTS28.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.3%

Draw & BTTS7.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Home & Under 2.55.7%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Away & Over 2.54.5%

Away & BTTS4.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.4%

HT Home Win70.4%

HT Over 1.570.3%

HT/FT Home/Home67.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score35.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.7%

HT Draw20.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT Away Win9.6%

HT Under 0.58.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Away2.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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