England · Championship

Swansea vs Watford

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

80% confidence

Swansea 79.7% Draw 15.8% Watford 4.5%

Over 2.5 - 54% BTTS - 34%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 16.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Swansea: 10 points versus 8 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.60 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.5%

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

W D W L W

Form 3-1-1 Goals 8:3 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 0.6

Watford

D L D W W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win79.7%

Draw15.8%

Watford win4.5%

Over 1.5 goals78.6%

Over 2.5 goals54.2%

Over 3.5 goals31.9%

Both teams to score34.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Home Over 0.5

90.8%

Home or Away (12)

85.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.5%

Draw No Bet - Home93.7%

Home or Away (12)85.8%

Home Win80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.557.2%

Goal in Both Halves57.2%

Draw or Away (X2)19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal16.5%

Draw14.1%

Draw No Bet - Away6.3%

Away Win5.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals84.0%

Over 1.5 Goals77.7%

Under 3.5 Goals68.1%

1-3 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.2%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals45.8%

2-3 Goals45.8%

1-2 Goals40.0%

3-4 Goals38.2%

Over 3.5 Goals31.9%

4+ Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals23.5%

Under 1.5 Goals22.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals16.0%

Over 5.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)66.6%

Home Clean Sheet63.1%

Home Win to Nil57.4%

Away Team to Score36.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.1%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.8%

Home Over 1.568.9%

Away Exactly 063.1%

Home Over 2.542.7%

Home 3+ Goals42.7%

Away Over 0.536.8%

Away Exactly 129.0%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Exactly 121.9%

Home Exactly 09.1%

Away Over 1.57.8%

Away Exactly 26.7%

Away Over 2.51.1%

Away 3+ Goals1.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.0%

Home to win by 3+34.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw23.5%

Home to win by 223.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.9%

Home to win by 122.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.4%

Away to win by 14.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS57.4%

Home & Over 2.550.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.539.4%

Home & Under 2.530.4%

BTTS & Over 2.527.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.1%

Home & BTTS23.1%

Draw & Under 2.512.1%

Draw & BTTS8.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.3%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Away & Under 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.52.1%

Draw & Over 2.52.0%

Away & BTTS2.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.3%

HT Under 1.563.3%

HT Home Win58.7%

HT/FT Home/Home56.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Over 1.536.7%

HT Draw34.2%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.7%

Equal Goals Each Half24.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.1%

HT Both Teams Score12.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.7%

HT Away Win7.1%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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