England · Championship

Swansea vs Wrexham

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

55% confidence

Swansea 55.0% Draw 29.6% Wrexham 15.4%

Over 2.5 - 36% BTTS - 39%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 17.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Swansea: 13 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.4%

Exact-score model probability

Swansea

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 10:3 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.5

Wrexham

W L D D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Swansea win55.0%

Draw29.6%

Wrexham win15.4%

Over 1.5 goals64.5%

Over 2.5 goals36.0%

Over 3.5 goals16.8%

Both teams to score39.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

88.3%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)83.1%

Draw No Bet - Home77.0%

Home or Away (12)73.4%

Home Win56.5%

Draw or Away (X2)43.4%

Both Halves Over 0.542.7%

Goal in Both Halves42.7%

Draw26.6%

Exactly 1 Goal25.2%

Draw No Bet - Away23.0%

Away Win16.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.8%

Under 4.5 Goals93.4%

Over 0.5 Goals88.2%

Under 3.5 Goals83.2%

1-3 Goals71.4%

Under 2.5 Goals64.0%

Over 1.5 Goals63.0%

2-4 Goals56.4%

1-2 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.1%

Under 1.5 Goals37.0%

Over 2.5 Goals36.0%

3-4 Goals29.4%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.2%

Over 3.5 Goals16.8%

4+ Goals16.8%

Under 0.5 Goals11.8%

Exactly 0 Goals11.8%

Over 4.5 Goals6.6%

Over 5.5 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score77.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)62.5%

Home Clean Sheet51.3%

Away Team to Score48.7%

Home Win to Nil39.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)37.5%

Away Clean Sheet23.0%

Away Win to Nil11.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.577.0%

Away Exactly 051.3%

Away Over 0.548.7%

Home Over 1.543.2%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Home Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 023.0%

Home Over 2.518.3%

Home 3+ Goals18.3%

Away Over 1.514.4%

Away Exactly 211.4%

Away Over 2.53.0%

Away 3+ Goals3.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw27.4%

Home to win by 127.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 217.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.4%

Away to win by 112.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home11.7%

Home to win by 3+11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.6%

Away to win by 23.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.552.4%

Home & No BTTS39.5%

Home & Under 2.530.1%

Home & Over 2.526.4%

BTTS & Over 2.525.9%

Draw & Under 2.523.4%

Home & BTTS17.0%

Draw & BTTS14.7%

BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Away & No BTTS11.2%

Away & Under 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

Away & Over 2.56.4%

Away & BTTS5.7%

Draw & Over 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.575.0%

HT Over 0.561.8%

HT Draw46.2%

2nd Half More Goals40.7%

HT Home Win39.1%

HT Under 0.538.2%

HT/FT Home/Home34.5%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.4%

HT Over 1.525.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.8%

HT Away Win14.7%

HT Both Teams Score12.5%

HT/FT Away/Away8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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