Mexico · Liga MX

Tigres UANL vs Leon

Kick-off 04:00 · Wed, Oct 21

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Tigres UANL 51.7% Draw 24.6% Leon 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leon: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.9%

Exact-score model probability

Tigres UANL

W D L D D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 3:4 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Leon

L D W D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tigres UANL win51.7%

Draw24.6%

Leon win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals84.5%

Over 2.5 goals62.6%

Over 3.5 goals40.4%

Both teams to score63.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.0%

Home or Draw (1X)75.0%

Draw No Bet - Home68.0%

Both Halves Over 0.563.7%

Goal in Both Halves63.7%

Home Win53.0%

Draw or Away (X2)47.0%

Draw No Bet - Away32.0%

Away Win25.0%

Draw22.0%

Exactly 1 Goal12.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.0%

Under 5.5 Goals89.1%

Over 1.5 Goals83.2%

Under 4.5 Goals77.5%

Over 2.5 Goals62.6%

2-4 Goals60.8%

Under 3.5 Goals59.6%

1-3 Goals55.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.9%

Over 3.5 Goals40.4%

4+ Goals40.4%

3-4 Goals40.2%

Under 2.5 Goals37.4%

1-2 Goals33.4%

Over 4.5 Goals22.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Exactly 2 Goals20.6%

Under 1.5 Goals16.8%

Over 5.5 Goals10.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.0%

Exactly 0 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.8%

Away Team to Score72.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.1%

Home Clean Sheet27.8%

Home Win to Nil23.8%

Away Clean Sheet14.2%

Away Win to Nil10.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.8%

Away Over 0.572.2%

Home Over 1.558.0%

Away Over 1.536.6%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Home Over 2.531.0%

Home 3+ Goals31.0%

Away Exactly 027.8%

Home Exactly 127.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 014.2%

Away Over 2.513.8%

Away 3+ Goals13.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home75.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.3%

Home to win by 122.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.6%

Home to win by 3+14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.9%

Away to win by 26.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.4%

Away to win by 3+3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.0%

Home & Over 2.537.8%

Home & BTTS29.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.5%

Home & No BTTS23.8%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Away & Over 2.516.7%

Home & Under 2.515.2%

Away & BTTS14.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.6%

Away & No BTTS10.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Away & Under 2.58.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.576.6%

HT Under 1.557.4%

2nd Half More Goals45.3%

HT Over 1.542.6%

HT Home Win40.5%

HT Draw36.8%

HT/FT Home/Home33.5%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score25.6%

HT Under 0.523.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.0%

HT Away Win22.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT/FT Away/Away14.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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