Mexico · Liga MX

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

● LIVE 45' · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Tigres UANL 78.5% Draw 11.2% Necaxa 10.3%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Necaxa: 5 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

Tigres UANL

D W L L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Necaxa

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tigres UANL win78.5%

Draw11.2%

Necaxa win10.3%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals82.3%

Both teams to score80.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

90.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

Home Over 1.5

89.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.7%

Goal in Both Halves88.7%

Draw No Bet - Home88.2%

Home or Draw (1X)87.2%

Home or Away (12)87.1%

Home Win76.8%

Draw or Away (X2)20.7%

Draw No Bet - Away11.8%

Draw10.4%

Away Win10.3%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals95.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.2%

Over 3.5 Goals80.3%

4+ Goals80.3%

Over 4.5 Goals65.9%

Under 5.5 Goals50.7%

Over 5.5 Goals49.3%

Total Goals Even48.8%

Total Goals Odd48.7%

Under 4.5 Goals34.1%

2-4 Goals29.5%

3-4 Goals24.3%

Under 3.5 Goals19.7%

1-3 Goals16.9%

2-3 Goals15.1%

Exactly 3 Goals10.0%

Under 2.5 Goals9.8%

1-2 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score79.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.2%

Home Clean Sheet18.4%

Home Win to Nil18.1%

Away Clean Sheet1.6%

Away Win to Nil1.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.589.1%

Away Over 0.579.1%

Home Over 2.575.3%

Home 3+ Goals75.3%

Away Over 1.548.4%

Away Exactly 130.7%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Away Over 2.522.8%

Away 3+ Goals22.8%

Away Exactly 018.4%

Home Exactly 213.9%

Home Exactly 16.7%

Home Exactly 01.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)81.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away81.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.3%

Home to win by 3+45.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 114.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.0%

Away to win by 16.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.8%

Away to win by 22.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.6%

Home & Over 2.572.9%

Home & BTTS58.7%

Home & No BTTS18.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.6%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Away & Over 2.59.3%

Away & BTTS8.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & Under 2.53.9%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & No BTTS1.3%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.6%

HT Over 1.573.2%

HT Home Win63.5%

HT/FT Home/Home58.9%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score44.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.8%

HT Draw21.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT Away Win14.6%

HT Under 0.57.4%

HT/FT Away/Away5.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners78.7%

Under 10.5 Corners68.6%

Over 8.5 Corners56.6%

Under 9.5 Corners56.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners56.0%

Home Most Corners54.3%

Over 9.5 Corners43.5%

Under 8.5 Corners43.4%

Away Over 4.5 Corners40.4%

Away Most Corners32.8%

Over 10.5 Corners31.4%

Over 11.5 Corners21.3%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards87.5%

Over 3.5 Cards73.5%

Under 5.5 Cards61.6%

Over 4.5 Cards56.0%

Under 4.5 Cards44.0%

Over 5.5 Cards38.4%

Under 3.5 Cards26.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.0%

Under 2.5 Cards12.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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