Mexico · Liga MX

Tigres UANL vs Puebla

Kick-off 04:10 · Sun, Sep 27

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Tigres UANL 46.6% Draw 24.9% Puebla 28.5%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Puebla: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Tigres UANL

L D D D W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Puebla

D L W L W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tigres UANL win46.6%

Draw24.9%

Puebla win28.5%

Over 1.5 goals85.9%

Over 2.5 goals64.8%

Over 3.5 goals42.8%

Both teams to score66.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

87.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.6%

Home or Draw (1X)70.2%

Both Halves Over 0.565.4%

Goal in Both Halves65.4%

Draw No Bet - Home61.6%

Draw or Away (X2)52.2%

Home Win47.8%

Draw No Bet - Away38.4%

Away Win29.8%

Draw22.3%

Exactly 1 Goal11.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals87.8%

Over 1.5 Goals84.6%

Under 4.5 Goals75.6%

Over 2.5 Goals64.8%

2-4 Goals60.2%

Under 3.5 Goals57.2%

1-3 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals42.8%

4+ Goals42.8%

2-3 Goals41.8%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals35.2%

1-2 Goals31.6%

Over 4.5 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.8%

Under 1.5 Goals15.4%

Over 5.5 Goals12.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.8%

Away Team to Score76.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.0%

Home Clean Sheet23.4%

Home Win to Nil19.8%

Away Clean Sheet15.2%

Away Win to Nil11.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.8%

Away Over 0.576.6%

Home Over 1.556.2%

Away Over 1.542.6%

Away Exactly 134.0%

Home Over 2.529.2%

Home 3+ Goals29.2%

Home Exactly 128.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 224.7%

Away Exactly 023.4%

Away Over 2.517.9%

Away 3+ Goals17.9%

Home Exactly 015.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away52.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.3%

Away to win by 116.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.2%

Home to win by 3+12.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.9%

Away to win by 3+4.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.3%

Home & Over 2.534.8%

Home & BTTS28.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.4%

Away & Over 2.520.9%

Home & No BTTS19.8%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Away & BTTS18.2%

Draw & Under 2.513.3%

Home & Under 2.513.0%

Away & No BTTS11.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

Away & Under 2.58.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.7%

HT Under 1.555.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.7%

HT Over 1.544.3%

HT Home Win37.5%

HT Draw36.4%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT/FT Home/Home29.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.5%

HT Away Win26.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.6%

HT Under 0.522.3%

HT/FT Away/Away17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners87.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners87.5%

Over 9.5 Corners80.0%

Home Most Corners73.1%

Over 10.5 Corners70.5%

Over 11.5 Corners59.7%

Away Over 4.5 Corners54.6%

Under 11.5 Corners40.3%

Under 10.5 Corners29.5%

Under 9.5 Corners20.0%

Away Most Corners18.3%

Under 8.5 Corners12.4%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards83.0%

Over 2.5 Cards71.5%

Under 4.5 Cards68.7%

Over 3.5 Cards50.6%

Under 3.5 Cards49.4%

Over 4.5 Cards31.3%

Under 2.5 Cards28.5%

Over 5.5 Cards17.0%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions