Mexico · Liga MX

Tigres UANL vs Toluca

Kick-off 04:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Tigres UANL 23.1% Draw 29.3% Toluca 47.6%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 12.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.7%

Exact-score model probability

Tigres UANL

D L D D D W

Form 1-4-1 Goals 3:3 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.5

Toluca

L W W W W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tigres UANL win23.1%

Draw29.3%

Toluca win47.6%

Over 1.5 goals72.1%

Over 2.5 goals44.7%

Over 3.5 goals23.5%

Both teams to score49.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)75.3%

Home or Away (12)73.9%

Draw No Bet - Away66.6%

Home or Draw (1X)50.8%

Both Halves Over 0.549.7%

Goal in Both Halves49.7%

Away Win49.2%

Draw No Bet - Home33.4%

Draw26.1%

Home Win24.7%

Exactly 1 Goal21.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.0%

Over 0.5 Goals91.5%

Under 4.5 Goals89.6%

Under 3.5 Goals76.5%

Over 1.5 Goals70.5%

1-3 Goals68.0%

2-4 Goals60.1%

Under 2.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals44.7%

3-4 Goals34.3%

Under 1.5 Goals29.5%

Exactly 2 Goals25.8%

Over 3.5 Goals23.5%

4+ Goals23.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Over 4.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals8.5%

Exactly 0 Goals8.5%

Over 5.5 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.5%

Home Team to Score62.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)51.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)48.2%

Away Clean Sheet37.8%

Away Win to Nil29.3%

Home Clean Sheet22.5%

Home Win to Nil14.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.5%

Home Over 0.562.2%

Away Over 1.543.9%

Home Exactly 037.8%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Home Over 1.525.4%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 022.5%

Away Over 2.518.9%

Away 3+ Goals18.9%

Home Exactly 217.9%

Home Over 2.57.5%

Home 3+ Goals7.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)75.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home75.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home50.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)49.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away24.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.4%

Away to win by 124.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 214.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.8%

Away to win by 3+9.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.4%

Home to win by 26.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.543.0%

BTTS & Over 2.535.8%

Away & No BTTS29.3%

Away & Over 2.527.0%

Away & Under 2.522.1%

Draw & Under 2.520.9%

Away & BTTS19.9%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

Home & No BTTS14.0%

Home & Over 2.512.4%

Home & Under 2.512.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.3%

Home & BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.6%

HT Over 0.567.0%

HT Draw43.4%

2nd Half More Goals42.4%

HT Away Win35.8%

HT Under 0.533.0%

1st Half More Goals30.6%

HT Over 1.530.4%

HT/FT Away/Away29.7%

Equal Goals Each Half27.0%

HT Home Win20.7%

HT Both Teams Score17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.7%

HT/FT Home/Home13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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