Mexico · Liga MX

Toluca vs Atlas

Kick-off 00:05 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Toluca 51.7% Draw 23.9% Atlas 24.4%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.4%

Exact-score model probability

Toluca

W W D W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Atlas

D L W W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toluca win51.7%

Draw23.9%

Atlas win24.4%

Over 1.5 goals86.5%

Over 2.5 goals66.0%

Over 3.5 goals44.1%

Both teams to score66.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.5%

Home or Draw (1X)74.3%

Draw No Bet - Home67.3%

Both Halves Over 0.566.3%

Goal in Both Halves66.3%

Home Win52.9%

Draw or Away (X2)47.1%

Draw No Bet - Away32.7%

Away Win25.7%

Draw21.4%

Exactly 1 Goal11.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Under 5.5 Goals87.1%

Over 1.5 Goals85.3%

Under 4.5 Goals74.5%

Over 2.5 Goals66.0%

2-4 Goals59.7%

Under 3.5 Goals55.9%

1-3 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.1%

4+ Goals44.1%

2-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.0%

1-2 Goals30.7%

Over 4.5 Goals25.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals14.7%

Over 5.5 Goals12.9%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals3.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.9%

Away Team to Score74.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.3%

Home Clean Sheet25.5%

Home Win to Nil22.1%

Away Clean Sheet13.1%

Away Win to Nil9.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.9%

Away Over 0.574.5%

Home Over 1.560.2%

Away Over 1.539.7%

Away Exactly 134.8%

Home Over 2.533.2%

Home 3+ Goals33.2%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 126.6%

Away Exactly 025.5%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Away Over 2.515.9%

Away 3+ Goals15.9%

Home Exactly 013.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.7%

Home to win by 121.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.2%

Home to win by 3+15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.6%

Away to win by 114.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.555.4%

Home & Over 2.539.2%

Home & BTTS30.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.7%

Home & No BTTS22.1%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Away & Over 2.518.0%

Away & BTTS15.9%

Home & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Under 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Away & No BTTS9.8%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Draw & Over 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.3%

HT Under 1.554.8%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.2%

HT Home Win40.8%

HT Draw35.7%

HT/FT Home/Home33.6%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score27.5%

HT Away Win23.5%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT Under 0.521.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.7%

HT/FT Away/Away14.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions