Mexico · Liga MX

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

● LIVE 45' · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Toluca 82.5% Draw 9.5% Atletico San Luis 8.0%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 12 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Toluca

L L W W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Atletico San Luis

L L W D L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toluca win82.5%

Draw9.5%

Atletico San Luis win8.0%

Over 1.5 goals98.6%

Over 2.5 goals94.2%

Over 3.5 goals85.5%

Both teams to score79.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

90.9%

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.5%

Goal in Both Halves

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.9%

Both Halves Over 0.590.5%

Goal in Both Halves90.5%

Home or Draw (1X)88.0%

Home or Away (12)87.3%

Home Win79.4%

Draw or Away (X2)16.6%

Draw No Bet - Away9.1%

Draw8.7%

Away Win7.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.4%

Over 3.5 Goals82.1%

4+ Goals82.1%

Over 4.5 Goals69.3%

Over 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals30.7%

2-4 Goals25.1%

3-4 Goals21.1%

Under 3.5 Goals17.9%

1-3 Goals13.7%

2-3 Goals12.4%

Under 2.5 Goals9.6%

Exactly 3 Goals8.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

1-2 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals4.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score77.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.5%

Home Clean Sheet18.6%

Home Win to Nil18.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.577.4%

Away Over 1.546.8%

Away Exactly 130.5%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Away Over 2.521.8%

Away 3+ Goals21.8%

Away Exactly 018.6%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)85.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away75.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away61.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.6%

Home to win by 3+50.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)45.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away45.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home34.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)29.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away29.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)20.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home20.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.9%

Home to win by 112.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.2%

BTTS & Over 2.574.9%

Home & BTTS61.0%

Home & No BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS8.4%

Away & Over 2.57.3%

Away & BTTS7.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Home & Under 2.53.2%

Draw & Under 2.51.8%

BTTS & Under 2.51.6%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.7%

HT Over 1.576.2%

HT Home Win67.5%

HT/FT Home/Home63.6%

2nd Half More Goals51.5%

HT Both Teams Score45.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.8%

HT Draw19.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Away Win12.6%

HT Under 0.56.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Away4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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