Mexico · Liga MX

Toluca vs Club Tijuana

● LIVE 47' · 0:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Toluca 75.9% Draw 14.2% Club Tijuana 9.9%

Over 2.5 - 81% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toluca: 10 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Toluca

D L L W W W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Club Tijuana

D W D L W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toluca win75.9%

Draw14.2%

Club Tijuana win9.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.8%

Over 2.5 goals81.0%

Over 3.5 goals63.2%

Both teams to score66.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

89.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Home87.9%

Home or Away (12)86.6%

Both Halves Over 0.578.2%

Goal in Both Halves78.2%

Home Win76.1%

Draw or Away (X2)23.3%

Draw12.9%

Draw No Bet - Away12.1%

Away Win10.4%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals80.5%

Under 5.5 Goals73.1%

Over 3.5 Goals62.9%

4+ Goals62.9%

Under 4.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

2-4 Goals49.0%

Over 4.5 Goals43.6%

Under 3.5 Goals37.1%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.3%

2-3 Goals29.7%

Over 5.5 Goals26.9%

Under 2.5 Goals19.5%

1-2 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals12.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score68.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.1%

Home Clean Sheet30.7%

Home Win to Nil29.4%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.582.2%

Away Over 0.568.8%

Home Over 2.561.2%

Home 3+ Goals61.2%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.532.7%

Away Exactly 030.7%

Away Exactly 221.2%

Home Exactly 221.0%

Home Exactly 113.1%

Away Over 2.511.5%

Away 3+ Goals11.5%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)76.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home57.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)41.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away41.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.5%

Home to win by 3+38.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away23.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.565.6%

BTTS & Over 2.561.1%

Home & BTTS46.7%

Home & No BTTS29.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & BTTS11.6%

Home & Under 2.510.5%

Away & Over 2.58.1%

Away & BTTS7.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.8%

Draw & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.8%

Away & No BTTS2.8%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Home Win59.5%

HT Over 1.558.4%

HT/FT Home/Home55.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.3%

HT Draw26.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT Away Win13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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