Mexico · Liga MX

Toluca vs Necaxa

Full time · 3:1

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Toluca 9.9% Draw 18.0% Necaxa 72.1%

Over 2.5 - 65% BTTS - 54%

✓ Pick was correct (3:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 16%

⚠️ AIs disagree

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 10.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

16%

Market does not fully agree

Toluca

L W L L

Form 1-0-3 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 0.75 Conceded/game 1.25

Necaxa

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 4:2 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toluca win9.9%

Draw18.0%

Necaxa win72.1%

Over 1.5 goals85.8%

Over 2.5 goals65.2%

Over 3.5 goals43.3%

Both teams to score54.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

91.7%

Away Over 0.5

91.7%

Draw or Away (X2)

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Away87.0%

Home or Away (12)83.8%

Away Win73.0%

Both Halves Over 0.565.7%

Goal in Both Halves65.7%

Home or Draw (1X)26.9%

Draw16.1%

Draw No Bet - Home13.0%

Exactly 1 Goal11.7%

Home Win10.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Under 5.5 Goals87.6%

Over 1.5 Goals84.8%

Under 4.5 Goals75.2%

Over 2.5 Goals65.2%

2-4 Goals60.0%

Under 3.5 Goals56.8%

1-3 Goals53.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.2%

4+ Goals43.2%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.8%

1-2 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals24.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals15.2%

Over 5.5 Goals12.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.7%

Home Team to Score57.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)53.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.0%

Away Clean Sheet42.2%

Away Win to Nil38.7%

Home Clean Sheet8.2%

Home Win to Nil4.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.7%

Away Over 1.571.2%

Home Over 0.557.7%

Away Over 2.545.5%

Away 3+ Goals45.5%

Home Exactly 042.2%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Home Over 1.521.3%

Away Exactly 120.5%

Home Exactly 215.7%

Away Exactly 08.2%

Home Over 2.55.7%

Home 3+ Goals5.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away96.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away89.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)73.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away29.9%

Away to win by 3+29.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.0%

Away to win by 221.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.6%

Home to win by 17.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.5%

Home to win by 22.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.8%

Home to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.553.5%

BTTS & Over 2.545.5%

Away & No BTTS38.7%

Away & BTTS34.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.519.7%

Away & Under 2.519.5%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

Draw & Under 2.510.9%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Over 2.56.6%

Home & BTTS6.1%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Home & No BTTS4.7%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.0%

HT Under 1.555.4%

HT Away Win54.5%

HT/FT Away/Away50.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.6%

HT Draw32.7%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.0%

HT Both Teams Score21.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.5%

HT Home Win12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.1%

HT/FT Home/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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