Mexico · Liga MX

Toluca vs Santos Laguna

● LIVE 90' · 2:3

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Toluca 90.5% Draw 6.4% Santos Laguna 3.1%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

91%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Toluca: 16 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Toluca

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 15:4 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 0.67

Santos Laguna

W L D L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toluca win90.5%

Draw6.4%

Santos Laguna win3.1%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals78.9%

Both teams to score62.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.5%

Home or Away (12)

90.3%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.4%

Home or Draw (1X)92.7%

Home or Away (12)90.3%

Home Win87.1%

Both Halves Over 0.587.1%

Goal in Both Halves87.1%

Draw or Away (X2)8.9%

Draw5.7%

Draw No Bet - Away3.6%

Away Win3.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.1%

Over 3.5 Goals75.7%

4+ Goals75.7%

Over 4.5 Goals60.1%

Under 5.5 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals42.9%

Under 4.5 Goals39.9%

2-4 Goals33.2%

3-4 Goals27.0%

Under 3.5 Goals24.3%

1-3 Goals19.9%

2-3 Goals17.6%

Under 2.5 Goals12.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.4%

1-2 Goals8.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score60.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.4%

Home Clean Sheet35.7%

Home Win to Nil35.2%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.560.3%

Away Exactly 035.7%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.525.0%

Away Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.57.5%

Away 3+ Goals7.5%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)87.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)80.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.5%

Home to win by 3+61.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away51.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)44.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home44.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)34.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away34.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)28.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home28.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 110.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.0%

BTTS & Over 2.557.8%

Home & BTTS51.8%

Home & No BTTS35.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.529.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Over 2.53.4%

Away & Over 2.52.7%

Away & BTTS2.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.5%

HT Home Win75.0%

HT/FT Home/Home72.9%

HT Over 1.570.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score31.2%

HT Under 1.529.4%

HT Draw18.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.5%

HT Away Win7.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Away/Away1.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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