Italy · Serie A

Torino vs Monza

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Oct 23

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Torino 55.6% Draw 23.3% Monza 21.0%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Torino: 10 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Torino

W W D L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Monza

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 12:11 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Torino 2wins ·3 draws ·Monza 0wins

Torino 2-0 MonzaMar 2, 2025

Torino 1-1 MonzaNov 24, 2024

Torino 1-0 MonzaMar 30, 2024

Torino 1-1 MonzaNov 11, 2023

Torino 1-1 MonzaMay 7, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Torino win55.6%

Draw23.3%

Monza win21.0%

Over 1.5 goals77.3%

Over 2.5 goals93.4%

Over 3.5 goals31.2%

Both teams to score89.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.6%

HT Over 0.5

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.5%

Both Halves Over 0.579.9%

Goal in Both Halves79.9%

Home or Draw (1X)72.0%

Draw No Bet - Home65.8%

Home Win53.6%

Draw or Away (X2)46.2%

Draw No Bet - Away34.2%

Away Win27.8%

Draw18.4%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals83.0%

Under 5.5 Goals69.7%

Over 3.5 Goals66.3%

4+ Goals66.3%

Under 4.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals47.4%

2-4 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals35.5%

Under 3.5 Goals33.7%

1-3 Goals32.4%

Over 5.5 Goals30.3%

2-3 Goals27.6%

Under 2.5 Goals17.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.6%

Away Team to Score85.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.1%

Home Clean Sheet14.8%

Home Win to Nil13.7%

Away Clean Sheet7.2%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.6%

Away Over 0.585.0%

Home Over 1.573.7%

Away Over 1.556.8%

Home Over 2.548.8%

Home 3+ Goals48.8%

Away Over 2.529.8%

Away 3+ Goals29.8%

Away Exactly 128.2%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 118.9%

Away Exactly 014.8%

Home Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.3%

Home to win by 3+19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 215.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.8%

Away to win by 113.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.1%

Away to win by 28.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.0%

Away to win by 3+6.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.6%

Home & Over 2.547.1%

Home & BTTS39.9%

Away & Over 2.523.9%

Away & BTTS21.7%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & No BTTS13.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Draw & Under 2.56.4%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Over 1.560.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Home Win43.5%

HT Both Teams Score40.0%

HT Under 1.539.4%

HT/FT Home/Home35.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.9%

HT Away Win26.6%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Away/Away16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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