USA · Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

Toronto FC 87.1% Draw 7.8% CF Montreal 5.1%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 94.9% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 5.1% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Toronto FC: 5 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

94.9%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

5.1%

Only the uncovered result loses

Toronto FC

L L L W D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:14 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.33

CF Montreal

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:14 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 1

Toronto FC 0wins ·1 draws ·CF Montreal 0wins

Toronto FC 0-0 CF MontrealJul 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toronto FC win87.1%

Draw7.8%

CF Montreal win5.1%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.4%

Over 3.5 goals82.1%

Both teams to score71.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.3%

Home or Draw (1X)90.9%

Home or Away (12)88.9%

Both Halves Over 0.588.7%

Goal in Both Halves88.7%

Home Win83.8%

Draw or Away (X2)12.2%

Draw7.0%

Draw No Bet - Away5.7%

Away Win5.1%

Exactly 1 Goal1.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.7%

Over 3.5 Goals78.8%

4+ Goals78.8%

Over 4.5 Goals64.4%

Under 5.5 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals35.6%

2-4 Goals29.5%

3-4 Goals24.3%

Under 3.5 Goals21.2%

1-3 Goals16.9%

2-3 Goals15.1%

Under 2.5 Goals11.3%

Exactly 3 Goals9.9%

1-2 Goals6.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 2 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score69.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.5%

Home Clean Sheet26.7%

Home Win to Nil26.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.569.3%

Away Over 1.535.1%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Away Exactly 026.7%

Away Exactly 221.9%

Away Over 2.513.3%

Away 3+ Goals13.3%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)83.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home72.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)71.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away71.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home56.5%

Home to win by 3+56.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)56.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away56.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)39.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away39.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)24.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home24.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away23.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.7%

Home to win by 111.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.3%

Away to win by 13.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.579.3%

BTTS & Over 2.566.7%

Home & BTTS57.4%

Home & No BTTS26.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.522.0%

Draw & BTTS6.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.0%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Away & Over 2.54.5%

Away & BTTS4.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.6%

HT Over 1.573.3%

HT Home Win71.6%

HT/FT Home/Home68.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.9%

HT Both Teams Score38.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.7%

HT Draw19.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win9.4%

HT Under 0.57.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Away/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners73.4%

Over 8.5 Corners62.8%

Under 10.5 Corners62.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Away Most Corners52.0%

Over 9.5 Corners50.0%

Under 9.5 Corners50.0%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Over 10.5 Corners37.5%

Under 8.5 Corners37.2%

Home Most Corners35.3%

Over 11.5 Corners26.6%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards95.8%

Under 4.5 Cards89.1%

Under 3.5 Cards75.8%

Under 2.5 Cards54.4%

Over 2.5 Cards45.6%

Over 3.5 Cards24.2%

Over 4.5 Cards10.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.0%

Over 5.5 Cards4.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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