USA · Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs Charlotte

Kick-off 00:30 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Toronto FC 19.7% Draw 22.6% Charlotte 57.7%

Over 2.5 - 66% BTTS - 64%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Charlotte: 6 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Toronto FC

W D L D D L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 5:6 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1

Charlotte

W L W D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:6 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Toronto FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Charlotte 1wins

Toronto FC 1-3 CharlotteMay 17, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toronto FC win19.7%

Draw22.6%

Charlotte win57.7%

Over 1.5 goals86.4%

Over 2.5 goals65.9%

Over 3.5 goals44.0%

Both teams to score63.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.7%

Draw or Away (X2)79.1%

Draw No Bet - Away73.8%

Both Halves Over 0.566.2%

Goal in Both Halves66.2%

Away Win58.8%

Home or Draw (1X)41.2%

Draw No Bet - Home26.2%

Home Win20.9%

Draw20.3%

Exactly 1 Goal11.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.6%

Under 5.5 Goals87.2%

Over 1.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals74.6%

Over 2.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals59.8%

Under 3.5 Goals56.0%

1-3 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals44.0%

4+ Goals44.0%

2-3 Goals41.2%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.1%

1-2 Goals30.7%

Over 4.5 Goals25.4%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.3%

Under 1.5 Goals14.8%

Over 5.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.4%

Exactly 0 Goals3.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score88.5%

Home Team to Score70.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)62.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)37.4%

Away Clean Sheet29.3%

Away Win to Nil26.0%

Home Clean Sheet11.4%

Home Win to Nil8.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.588.5%

Home Over 0.570.7%

Away Over 1.563.7%

Away Over 2.536.8%

Away 3+ Goals36.8%

Home Exactly 136.0%

Home Over 1.534.7%

Home Exactly 029.3%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 124.8%

Home Exactly 222.1%

Home Over 2.512.6%

Home 3+ Goals12.6%

Away Exactly 011.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home63.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away36.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.3%

Away to win by 122.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.8%

Away to win by 3+18.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 112.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.7%

Home to win by 25.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.6%

Home to win by 3+2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.6%

Away & Over 2.543.6%

Away & BTTS32.8%

Away & No BTTS26.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.1%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Away & Under 2.515.2%

Home & Over 2.514.3%

Home & BTTS12.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Home & No BTTS8.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

Home & Under 2.56.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.3%

HT Under 1.554.9%

2nd Half More Goals45.9%

HT Over 1.545.1%

HT Away Win44.7%

HT/FT Away/Away38.2%

HT Draw35.1%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half22.3%

HT Under 0.521.7%

HT Home Win20.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.0%

HT/FT Home/Home11.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners72.1%

Under 11.5 Corners63.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners61.6%

Over 9.5 Corners60.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Under 10.5 Corners52.1%

Over 10.5 Corners47.9%

Home Most Corners45.8%

Away Most Corners41.7%

Under 9.5 Corners39.7%

Over 11.5 Corners36.1%

Under 8.5 Corners27.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards78.5%

Over 2.5 Cards76.2%

Under 4.5 Cards62.9%

Over 3.5 Cards56.7%

Under 3.5 Cards43.3%

Over 4.5 Cards37.1%

Under 2.5 Cards23.8%

Over 5.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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