USA · Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Toronto FC 49.2% Draw 18.4% Chicago Fire 32.4%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chicago Fire: 9 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

Toronto FC

D W D W D L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Chicago Fire

D W W W L L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 1

Toronto FC 0wins ·0 draws ·Chicago Fire 1wins

Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago FireMay 24, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toronto FC win49.2%

Draw18.4%

Chicago Fire win32.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.3%

Over 2.5 goals89.8%

Over 3.5 goals77.3%

Both teams to score86.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.8%

Goal in Both Halves85.8%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Home or Draw (1X)66.8%

Draw No Bet - Home60.1%

Draw or Away (X2)50.2%

Home Win49.4%

Draw No Bet - Away39.9%

Away Win32.8%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.5%

Over 2.5 Goals89.4%

Over 3.5 Goals77.0%

4+ Goals77.0%

Over 4.5 Goals60.6%

Under 5.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals43.2%

Under 4.5 Goals39.4%

2-4 Goals35.9%

3-4 Goals28.9%

Under 3.5 Goals23.0%

1-3 Goals22.1%

2-3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 3 Goals12.4%

Under 2.5 Goals10.6%

1-2 Goals9.7%

Exactly 2 Goals7.0%

Under 1.5 Goals3.5%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.1%

Away Team to Score90.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.5%

Home Clean Sheet9.1%

Home Win to Nil8.6%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.1%

Away Over 0.590.5%

Home Over 1.578.1%

Away Over 1.568.8%

Home Over 2.555.0%

Home 3+ Goals55.0%

Away Over 2.542.7%

Away 3+ Goals42.7%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 223.1%

Away Exactly 121.8%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Away Exactly 09.1%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.3%

Home to win by 3+18.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 117.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 114.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 213.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.5%

Away to win by 29.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.0%

Away to win by 3+9.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.0%

Home & Over 2.545.9%

Home & BTTS40.8%

Away & Over 2.530.1%

Away & BTTS27.8%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Draw & Over 2.513.4%

Home & No BTTS8.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & No BTTS5.0%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.5%

Away & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.8%

HT Over 1.568.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.2%

HT Both Teams Score48.1%

HT Home Win41.7%

HT/FT Home/Home32.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.2%

HT Away Win30.7%

HT Draw27.6%

HT/FT Away/Away20.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.1%

HT Under 0.59.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners70.3%

Under 11.5 Corners65.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners61.6%

Over 9.5 Corners58.3%

Home Over 4.5 Corners56.0%

Under 10.5 Corners54.1%

Away Most Corners47.8%

Over 10.5 Corners45.9%

Under 9.5 Corners41.7%

Home Most Corners39.7%

Over 11.5 Corners34.2%

Under 8.5 Corners29.7%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards89.8%

Under 4.5 Cards78.7%

Over 2.5 Cards61.3%

Under 3.5 Cards61.0%

Over 3.5 Cards39.0%

Under 2.5 Cards38.7%

Over 4.5 Cards21.3%

Over 0.5 Red Cards12.7%

Over 5.5 Cards10.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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