USA · Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

Kick-off 00:30 · Thu, Sep 10

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Toronto FC 44.0% Draw 21.0% Nashville SC 35.0%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Nashville SC: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Toronto FC

D D W D W D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 13:11 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Nashville SC

D W W W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:6 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toronto FC win44.0%

Draw21.0%

Nashville SC win35.0%

Over 1.5 goals94.4%

Over 2.5 goals82.0%

Over 3.5 goals64.8%

Both teams to score80.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

90.8%

Home Team to Score

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Both Halves Over 0.579.0%

Goal in Both Halves79.0%

Home or Draw (1X)64.2%

Draw No Bet - Home55.6%

Draw or Away (X2)55.2%

Home Win44.7%

Draw No Bet - Away44.4%

Away Win35.7%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal5.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals81.9%

Under 5.5 Goals71.3%

Over 3.5 Goals64.7%

4+ Goals64.7%

Under 4.5 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals47.9%

Over 4.5 Goals45.7%

3-4 Goals36.3%

Under 3.5 Goals35.3%

1-3 Goals34.0%

2-3 Goals28.8%

Over 5.5 Goals28.7%

Under 2.5 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.2%

1-2 Goals16.8%

Exactly 2 Goals11.6%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.3%

Away Team to Score87.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.7%

Home Clean Sheet12.2%

Home Win to Nil11.1%

Away Clean Sheet9.6%

Away Win to Nil8.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.3%

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 1.567.9%

Away Over 1.562.0%

Home Over 2.541.5%

Home 3+ Goals41.5%

Away Over 2.535.0%

Away 3+ Goals35.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 125.7%

Home Exactly 122.5%

Away Exactly 012.2%

Home Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home90.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away73.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)55.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away55.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)44.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home26.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 116.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.6%

Home to win by 3+13.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.1%

Home to win by 213.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 210.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away9.1%

Away to win by 3+9.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.5%

Home & Over 2.538.7%

Home & BTTS33.7%

Away & Over 2.530.7%

Away & BTTS27.3%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

Home & No BTTS11.1%

Away & No BTTS8.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.5%

HT Over 1.559.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.5%

HT Under 1.540.6%

HT Both Teams Score39.9%

HT Home Win37.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win31.7%

HT Draw30.8%

HT/FT Home/Home28.4%

HT/FT Away/Away22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.2%

HT Under 0.513.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners76.5%

Under 10.5 Corners66.1%

Over 8.5 Corners59.3%

Under 9.5 Corners53.8%

Away Over 4.5 Corners53.7%

Away Most Corners48.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Over 9.5 Corners46.2%

Under 8.5 Corners40.7%

Home Most Corners38.6%

Over 10.5 Corners33.9%

Over 11.5 Corners23.5%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards88.4%

Under 4.5 Cards76.4%

Over 2.5 Cards63.9%

Under 3.5 Cards58.2%

Over 3.5 Cards41.8%

Under 2.5 Cards36.1%

Over 4.5 Cards23.6%

Over 0.5 Red Cards13.2%

Over 5.5 Cards11.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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