USA · Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Kick-off 00:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Toronto FC 35.1% Draw 18.0% New York City FC 46.9%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

88%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toronto FC: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Toronto FC

W D W D L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

New York City FC

D L L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:9 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 1

Toronto FC 0wins ·1 draws ·New York City FC 0wins

Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FCAug 1, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toronto FC win35.1%

Draw18.0%

New York City FC win46.9%

Over 1.5 goals97.8%

Over 2.5 goals91.4%

Over 3.5 goals80.3%

Both teams to score88.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.4%

Goal in Both Halves87.4%

Home or Away (12)82.3%

Draw or Away (X2)64.2%

Draw No Bet - Away57.1%

Home or Draw (1X)52.5%

Away Win47.0%

Draw No Bet - Home42.9%

Home Win35.3%

Draw17.2%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals97.0%

Over 2.5 Goals91.0%

Over 3.5 Goals79.9%

4+ Goals79.9%

Over 4.5 Goals64.5%

Under 5.5 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals47.5%

Under 4.5 Goals35.5%

2-4 Goals32.4%

3-4 Goals26.4%

Under 3.5 Goals20.1%

1-3 Goals19.2%

2-3 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.1%

Under 2.5 Goals9.0%

1-2 Goals8.1%

Exactly 2 Goals6.0%

Under 1.5 Goals3.0%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.3%

Home Team to Score92.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)87.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)12.7%

Away Clean Sheet7.4%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Home Clean Sheet5.2%

Home Win to Nil4.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.3%

Home Over 0.592.1%

Away Over 1.578.9%

Home Over 1.572.8%

Away Over 2.556.2%

Away 3+ Goals56.2%

Home Over 2.547.7%

Home 3+ Goals47.7%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 222.7%

Home Exactly 119.3%

Away Exactly 115.4%

Home Exactly 07.4%

Away Exactly 05.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away88.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)69.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home69.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away64.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)52.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home52.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)35.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away30.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home20.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.2%

Away to win by 3+17.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.6%

Home to win by 114.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.2%

Away to win by 213.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.6%

Home to win by 3+10.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.2%

Home to win by 210.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.584.3%

Away & Over 2.544.1%

Away & BTTS39.9%

Home & Over 2.533.0%

Home & BTTS30.5%

Draw & BTTS16.8%

Draw & Over 2.513.8%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Home & No BTTS4.8%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.8%

HT Over 1.571.2%

HT Both Teams Score50.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.6%

HT Away Win40.4%

HT Home Win32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Away/Away30.9%

HT Under 1.528.8%

HT Draw26.9%

HT/FT Home/Home22.3%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.1%

HT Under 0.58.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

Corners (12)

Under 11.5 Corners93.0%

Under 10.5 Corners87.6%

Under 9.5 Corners79.5%

Under 8.5 Corners68.5%

Home Most Corners42.5%

Away Most Corners42.5%

Over 8.5 Corners31.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners30.6%

Over 9.5 Corners20.5%

Over 10.5 Corners12.4%

Over 11.5 Corners7.0%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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