England · Premier League

Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Tottenham 35.0% Draw 28.7% Aston Villa 36.4%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Tottenham: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Tottenham 3 wins, 0 draws, Aston Villa 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Tottenham

D D L W L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Aston Villa

L W D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Tottenham 3wins ·0 draws ·Aston Villa 2wins

Tottenham 2-1 Aston VillaMay 3, 2026

Tottenham 1-2 Aston VillaOct 19, 2025

Tottenham 0-2 Aston VillaMay 16, 2025

Tottenham 4-1 Aston VillaNov 3, 2024

Tottenham 4-0 Aston VillaMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tottenham win35.0%

Draw28.7%

Aston Villa win36.4%

Over 1.5 goals77.0%

Over 2.5 goals71.7%

Over 3.5 goals29.1%

Both teams to score70.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

87.8%

Home Team to Score

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.0%

Home or Draw (1X)72.9%

Both Halves Over 0.568.9%

Goal in Both Halves68.9%

Draw No Bet - Home65.7%

Home Win51.9%

Draw or Away (X2)48.1%

Draw No Bet - Away34.3%

Away Win27.1%

Draw21.0%

Exactly 1 Goal10.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals87.2%

Under 5.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals71.0%

Over 2.5 Goals69.4%

2-4 Goals58.2%

Under 3.5 Goals51.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.1%

Over 3.5 Goals48.1%

4+ Goals48.1%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.1%

Under 2.5 Goals30.6%

Over 4.5 Goals29.0%

1-2 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 2 Goals17.8%

Over 5.5 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score87.7%

Away Team to Score77.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.2%

Home Clean Sheet22.7%

Home Win to Nil20.0%

Away Clean Sheet12.2%

Away Win to Nil9.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.587.7%

Away Over 0.577.2%

Home Over 1.562.1%

Away Over 1.543.6%

Home Over 2.535.1%

Home 3+ Goals35.1%

Away Exactly 133.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.7%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Away Exactly 022.7%

Away Over 2.518.6%

Away 3+ Goals18.6%

Home Exactly 012.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away84.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 121.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home15.2%

Home to win by 3+15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.7%

Away to win by 27.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.1%

Home & Over 2.539.9%

Home & BTTS31.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.9%

Home & No BTTS20.0%

Away & Over 2.519.9%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Home & Under 2.512.0%

Draw & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.6%

Away & No BTTS9.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Away & Under 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.1%

HT Under 1.552.1%

HT Over 1.547.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.4%

HT Home Win40.6%

HT Draw34.6%

HT/FT Home/Home33.1%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score29.8%

HT Away Win24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.7%

HT Under 0.519.9%

HT/FT Away/Away15.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions