England · Premier League

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Tottenham 36.5% Draw 25.7% Newcastle 37.8%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.6%

Exact-score model probability

Tottenham

W L W L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Newcastle

W D L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Tottenham 0wins ·1 draws ·Newcastle 4wins

Tottenham 1-2 NewcastleFeb 10, 2026

Tottenham 2-2 NewcastleDec 2, 2025

Tottenham 1-2 NewcastleJan 4, 2025

Tottenham 1-2 NewcastleSep 1, 2024

Tottenham 0-4 NewcastleApr 13, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tottenham win36.5%

Draw25.7%

Newcastle win37.8%

Over 1.5 goals82.9%

Over 2.5 goals77.3%

Over 3.5 goals38.1%

Both teams to score68.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.6%

Home Team to Score

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Home or Draw (1X)74.6%

Both Halves Over 0.573.5%

Goal in Both Halves73.5%

Draw No Bet - Home68.5%

Home Win55.0%

Draw or Away (X2)44.9%

Draw No Bet - Away31.5%

Away Win25.3%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal7.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals90.3%

Under 5.5 Goals79.6%

Over 2.5 Goals75.1%

Under 4.5 Goals64.2%

Over 3.5 Goals55.3%

4+ Goals55.3%

2-4 Goals54.5%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals44.7%

1-3 Goals42.7%

3-4 Goals39.4%

Over 4.5 Goals35.8%

2-3 Goals35.0%

Under 2.5 Goals24.9%

1-2 Goals22.8%

Over 5.5 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 2 Goals15.1%

Under 1.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.5%

Away Team to Score79.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.2%

Home Clean Sheet20.6%

Home Win to Nil18.7%

Away Clean Sheet9.5%

Away Win to Nil7.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.5%

Away Over 0.579.3%

Home Over 1.568.2%

Away Over 1.546.7%

Home Over 2.541.9%

Home 3+ Goals41.9%

Away Exactly 132.6%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 225.7%

Home Exactly 122.3%

Away Over 2.521.1%

Away 3+ Goals21.1%

Away Exactly 020.6%

Home Exactly 09.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)81.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away81.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 120.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)18.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home18.4%

Home to win by 3+18.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.7%

Away to win by 113.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.4%

Away to win by 3+4.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.5%

Home & Over 2.545.0%

Home & BTTS36.4%

Away & Over 2.519.8%

Home & No BTTS18.7%

Away & BTTS17.8%

Draw & BTTS17.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Under 2.59.2%

Away & No BTTS7.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.0%

HT Over 1.552.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.3%

HT Under 1.547.2%

HT Home Win43.4%

HT/FT Home/Home35.9%

HT Both Teams Score33.2%

HT Draw32.5%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Away Win24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.5%

HT Under 0.517.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.1%

HT/FT Away/Away14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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