France · Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

Full time · 0:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

77% confidence

Toulouse 76.7% Draw 15.8% Estac Troyes 7.4%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 68%

✓ Pick was correct (0:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Toulouse: 9 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.4%

Exact-score model probability

Toulouse

W D W D L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Estac Troyes

L L L L L W

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:16 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 2

Toulouse 2wins ·0 draws ·Estac Troyes 0wins

Toulouse 4-1 Estac TroyesFeb 1, 2023

Toulouse 3-0 Estac TroyesAug 14, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toulouse win76.7%

Draw15.8%

Estac Troyes win7.4%

Over 1.5 goals81.0%

Over 2.5 goals83.0%

Over 3.5 goals36.3%

Both teams to score68.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

88.8%

HT Over 0.5

85.9%

Home Over 1.5

84.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)92.5%

Draw No Bet - Home92.5%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Home Win82.2%

Both Halves Over 0.578.1%

Goal in Both Halves78.1%

Draw or Away (X2)17.0%

Draw10.3%

Draw No Bet - Away7.5%

Away Win6.7%

Exactly 1 Goal5.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals92.3%

Over 2.5 Goals80.1%

Under 5.5 Goals73.6%

Over 3.5 Goals62.5%

4+ Goals62.5%

Under 4.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-4 Goals49.1%

Over 4.5 Goals43.2%

Under 3.5 Goals37.5%

3-4 Goals36.9%

1-3 Goals35.4%

2-3 Goals29.8%

Over 5.5 Goals26.4%

Under 2.5 Goals19.9%

1-2 Goals17.8%

Exactly 3 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals12.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score61.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.0%

Home Clean Sheet38.2%

Home Win to Nil36.9%

Away Clean Sheet3.3%

Away Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.5%

Home Over 2.565.2%

Home 3+ Goals65.2%

Away Over 0.561.0%

Away Exactly 038.2%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Over 1.524.6%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Away Exactly 217.4%

Home Exactly 111.3%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Home Exactly 03.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away71.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.1%

Home to win by 3+46.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 116.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 14.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.570.4%

BTTS & Over 2.554.8%

Home & BTTS45.3%

Home & No BTTS36.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.525.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.9%

Home & Under 2.511.8%

Draw & BTTS9.1%

Draw & Under 2.55.4%

Draw & Over 2.54.9%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Away & BTTS4.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS2.1%

Away & Under 2.51.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.9%

HT Home Win64.9%

HT/FT Home/Home61.6%

HT Over 1.558.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.3%

HT Under 1.541.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score27.4%

HT Draw25.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT Under 0.514.1%

HT Away Win10.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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