France · Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Le Havre

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Toulouse 52.9% Draw 27.8% Le Havre 19.3%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 63%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Toulouse: 8 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Toulouse 2 wins, 1 draws, Le Havre 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.3%

Exact-score model probability

Toulouse

D L D L W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Le Havre

D L D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:5 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Toulouse 2wins ·1 draws ·Le Havre 2wins

Toulouse 1-2 Le HavreFeb 15, 2026

Toulouse 0-0 Le HavreNov 2, 2025

Toulouse 4-1 Le HavreFeb 23, 2025

Toulouse 2-0 Le HavreSep 15, 2024

Toulouse 0-1 Le HavreMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toulouse win52.9%

Draw27.8%

Le Havre win19.3%

Over 1.5 goals67.7%

Over 2.5 goals68.3%

Over 3.5 goals20.1%

Both teams to score63.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)77.5%

Draw or Away (X2)75.4%

Draw No Bet - Away68.3%

Both Halves Over 0.561.7%

Goal in Both Halves61.7%

Away Win53.0%

Home or Draw (1X)47.0%

Draw No Bet - Home31.7%

Home Win24.6%

Draw22.5%

Exactly 1 Goal13.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Under 5.5 Goals90.5%

Over 1.5 Goals81.6%

Under 4.5 Goals79.7%

Under 3.5 Goals62.3%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.0%

1-3 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.0%

Under 2.5 Goals40.0%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.7%

4+ Goals37.7%

1-2 Goals35.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals18.4%

Over 5.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score84.8%

Home Team to Score70.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Away Clean Sheet29.5%

Away Win to Nil25.0%

Home Clean Sheet15.2%

Home Win to Nil10.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.584.8%

Home Over 0.570.5%

Away Over 1.556.2%

Home Exactly 136.0%

Home Over 1.534.5%

Home Exactly 029.5%

Away Over 2.529.3%

Away 3+ Goals29.3%

Away Exactly 128.6%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 222.0%

Away Exactly 015.2%

Home Over 2.512.5%

Home 3+ Goals12.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home69.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)53.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away30.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.7%

Away to win by 122.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.1%

Away to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 114.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.1%

Away to win by 3+14.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 26.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.2%

Home to win by 3+3.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.549.5%

Away & Over 2.536.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.7%

Away & BTTS27.9%

Away & No BTTS25.0%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Away & Under 2.516.4%

Home & Over 2.515.8%

Draw & Under 2.514.8%

Home & BTTS13.9%

Home & No BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Home & Under 2.58.8%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.3%

HT Under 1.559.2%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.8%

HT Away Win40.2%

HT Draw37.6%

HT/FT Away/Away33.3%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half23.5%

HT Home Win22.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.4%

HT/FT Home/Home14.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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