France · Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lille

Kick-off 19:45 · Thu, Sep 3

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Toulouse 30.6% Draw 30.1% Lille 39.3%

Over 2.5 - 77% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 10.3%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Lille: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.3%

Exact-score model probability

Toulouse

D L W W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Lille

D W L W D W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Toulouse 1wins ·0 draws ·Lille 4wins

Toulouse 0-4 LilleApr 12, 2026

Toulouse 1-2 LilleSep 14, 2025

Toulouse 1-2 LilleApr 12, 2025

Toulouse 1-2 LilleOct 5, 2024

Toulouse 3-1 LilleFeb 25, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toulouse win30.6%

Draw30.1%

Lille win39.3%

Over 1.5 goals68.8%

Over 2.5 goals77.2%

Over 3.5 goals20.8%

Both teams to score43.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)92.8%

Draw No Bet - Away92.2%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Away Win80.9%

Both Halves Over 0.571.3%

Goal in Both Halves71.3%

Home or Draw (1X)18.7%

Draw11.9%

Exactly 1 Goal8.7%

Draw No Bet - Home7.8%

Home Win6.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals88.6%

Under 5.5 Goals82.5%

Over 2.5 Goals72.1%

Under 4.5 Goals67.9%

2-4 Goals56.4%

Over 3.5 Goals51.5%

4+ Goals51.5%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals48.5%

1-3 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.1%

Over 4.5 Goals32.1%

Under 2.5 Goals27.9%

1-2 Goals25.2%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Over 5.5 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals16.4%

Under 1.5 Goals11.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.5%

Home Team to Score54.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.6%

Away Clean Sheet45.4%

Away Win to Nil43.1%

Home Clean Sheet5.1%

Home Win to Nil2.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.5%

Away Over 1.579.4%

Away Over 2.556.8%

Away 3+ Goals56.8%

Home Over 0.554.2%

Home Exactly 045.4%

Home Exactly 135.7%

Away Exactly 222.6%

Home Over 1.518.5%

Away Exactly 115.2%

Home Exactly 214.0%

Away Exactly 05.1%

Home Over 2.54.5%

Home 3+ Goals4.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home88.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)80.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home76.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)62.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away62.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)58.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home58.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.0%

Away to win by 3+41.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home37.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.1%

Away to win by 221.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.8%

Away to win by 118.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home18.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 15.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.5%

Home to win by 21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.563.7%

BTTS & Over 2.546.0%

Away & No BTTS43.1%

Away & BTTS37.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.1%

Away & Under 2.517.2%

Draw & BTTS9.6%

Draw & Under 2.57.7%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & Over 2.54.3%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Home & BTTS4.1%

Home & No BTTS2.8%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.6%

HT Away Win62.2%

HT/FT Away/Away58.9%

HT Over 1.550.5%

HT Under 1.549.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw28.2%

HT Both Teams Score22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.0%

HT Under 0.518.4%

HT Home Win9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.6%

HT/FT Home/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions