France · Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lyon

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Toulouse 37.0% Draw 27.0% Lyon 36.0%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Toulouse 2 wins, 1 draws, Lyon 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Toulouse

W W D L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:14 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.33

Lyon

D W L L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Toulouse 2wins ·1 draws ·Lyon 2wins

Toulouse 2-1 LyonMay 10, 2026

Toulouse 2-1 LyonOct 5, 2025

Toulouse 0-0 LyonJan 18, 2025

Toulouse 1-2 LyonSep 29, 2024

Toulouse 2-3 LyonMar 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toulouse win37.0%

Draw27.0%

Lyon win36.0%

Over 1.5 goals77.4%

Over 2.5 goals75.9%

Over 3.5 goals30.4%

Both teams to score74.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

87.2%

Away Team to Score

87.1%

Away Over 0.5

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.6%

Draw or Away (X2)71.0%

Both Halves Over 0.568.9%

Goal in Both Halves68.9%

Draw No Bet - Away63.1%

Home or Draw (1X)50.3%

Away Win49.6%

Draw No Bet - Home36.9%

Home Win29.0%

Draw21.3%

Exactly 1 Goal10.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals87.2%

Under 5.5 Goals84.7%

Under 4.5 Goals71.1%

Over 2.5 Goals69.3%

2-4 Goals58.3%

Under 3.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.2%

Over 3.5 Goals48.0%

4+ Goals48.0%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.2%

Under 2.5 Goals30.7%

Over 4.5 Goals28.9%

1-2 Goals27.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 2 Goals17.9%

Over 5.5 Goals15.3%

Under 1.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.1%

Home Team to Score78.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)68.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.7%

Away Clean Sheet21.6%

Away Win to Nil18.8%

Home Clean Sheet12.9%

Home Win to Nil10.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.1%

Home Over 0.578.4%

Away Over 1.560.6%

Home Over 1.545.3%

Away Over 2.533.6%

Away 3+ Goals33.6%

Home Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 126.4%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Home Exactly 021.6%

Home Over 2.519.9%

Home 3+ Goals19.9%

Away Exactly 012.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home71.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)71.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away71.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home50.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)29.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)28.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away28.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 120.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 115.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 214.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.9%

Away to win by 3+13.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.4%

Home to win by 28.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.1%

Home to win by 3+5.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.559.5%

Away & Over 2.538.1%

Away & BTTS30.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.9%

Home & Over 2.521.4%

Home & BTTS18.9%

Away & No BTTS18.8%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.5%

Away & Under 2.511.5%

Home & No BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.8%

BTTS & Under 2.58.7%

Home & Under 2.57.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.0%

HT Under 1.552.1%

HT Over 1.547.9%

2nd Half More Goals46.4%

HT Away Win39.2%

HT Draw34.8%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT/FT Away/Away31.4%

HT Both Teams Score30.0%

HT Home Win26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.7%

HT Under 0.520.0%

HT/FT Home/Home17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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