France · Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Kick-off 20:45 · Fri, Nov 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Toulouse 40.5% Draw 25.3% Strasbourg 34.2%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Toulouse: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Toulouse

L D W D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Strasbourg

W L L L D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 15:11 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Toulouse 2wins ·1 draws ·Strasbourg 2wins

Toulouse 2-1 StrasbourgMay 3, 2026

Toulouse 1-0 StrasbourgDec 6, 2025

Toulouse 1-2 StrasbourgMar 16, 2025

Toulouse 1-2 StrasbourgJan 12, 2025

Toulouse 0-0 StrasbourgApr 7, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Toulouse win40.5%

Draw25.3%

Strasbourg win34.2%

Over 1.5 goals82.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.0%

Over 3.5 goals37.3%

Both teams to score88.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.5%

Away Team to Score

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.2%

Both Halves Over 0.578.3%

Goal in Both Halves78.3%

Draw or Away (X2)60.9%

Home or Draw (1X)58.7%

Draw No Bet - Away51.4%

Draw No Bet - Home48.6%

Away Win41.2%

Home Win39.0%

Draw19.7%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.1%

Over 2.5 Goals81.1%

Under 5.5 Goals72.5%

Over 3.5 Goals63.5%

4+ Goals63.5%

Under 4.5 Goals55.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals48.8%

Over 4.5 Goals44.3%

3-4 Goals36.8%

Under 3.5 Goals36.5%

1-3 Goals35.1%

2-3 Goals29.6%

Over 5.5 Goals27.5%

Under 2.5 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

1-2 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.0%

Home Team to Score88.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)78.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)21.3%

Away Clean Sheet11.6%

Home Clean Sheet10.9%

Away Win to Nil10.3%

Home Win to Nil9.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.0%

Home Over 0.588.3%

Away Over 1.564.9%

Home Over 1.563.4%

Away Over 2.538.1%

Away 3+ Goals38.1%

Home Over 2.536.5%

Home 3+ Goals36.5%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 124.9%

Away Exactly 124.1%

Home Exactly 011.6%

Away Exactly 010.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)78.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away78.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 212.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.6%

Away to win by 3+11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.5%

Home to win by 211.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.5%

Home to win by 3+10.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.7%

Away & Over 2.535.3%

Home & Over 2.533.3%

Away & BTTS30.9%

Home & BTTS29.4%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.8%

Draw & Over 2.512.4%

Away & No BTTS10.3%

Home & No BTTS9.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Draw & Under 2.57.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & Under 2.55.9%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Over 1.558.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Under 1.541.5%

HT Both Teams Score39.2%

HT Away Win35.2%

HT Home Win33.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.1%

HT/FT Away/Away25.9%

HT/FT Home/Home24.3%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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