UEFA Europa Conference League

Tromso vs Brighton

Kick-off 18:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Tromso 59.6% Draw 19.3% Brighton 21.1%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Brighton: 6 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Tromso

W W L L

Form 2-0-2 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.25

Brighton

L L W L W D

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Tromso win59.6%

Draw19.3%

Brighton win21.1%

Over 1.5 goals93.4%

Over 2.5 goals79.8%

Over 3.5 goals61.6%

Both teams to score75.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.1%

Home or Draw (1X)78.0%

Both Halves Over 0.577.2%

Goal in Both Halves77.2%

Draw No Bet - Home73.4%

Home Win60.3%

Draw or Away (X2)39.6%

Draw No Bet - Away26.6%

Away Win21.8%

Draw17.8%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.4%

Over 2.5 Goals79.7%

Under 5.5 Goals74.4%

Over 3.5 Goals61.5%

4+ Goals61.5%

Under 4.5 Goals57.8%

2-4 Goals50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.2%

Under 3.5 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

1-3 Goals36.9%

2-3 Goals30.9%

Over 5.5 Goals25.6%

Under 2.5 Goals20.3%

1-2 Goals18.7%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals7.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.9%

Away Team to Score79.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.9%

Home Clean Sheet20.2%

Home Win to Nil18.8%

Away Clean Sheet6.9%

Away Win to Nil5.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.9%

Away Over 0.579.7%

Home Over 1.574.4%

Home Over 2.549.7%

Home 3+ Goals49.7%

Away Over 1.547.4%

Away Exactly 132.2%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Home Exactly 224.7%

Away Over 2.521.6%

Away 3+ Goals21.6%

Away Exactly 020.2%

Home Exactly 118.5%

Home Exactly 06.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away88.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.2%

Home to win by 3+23.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 119.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home11.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.7%

Away to win by 3+3.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.1%

Home & Over 2.551.5%

Home & BTTS41.5%

Home & No BTTS18.8%

Away & Over 2.517.8%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Away & BTTS16.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.0%

Away & No BTTS5.5%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Over 1.557.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Home Win47.5%

HT Under 1.542.8%

HT/FT Home/Home40.4%

HT Both Teams Score35.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.3%

HT Away Win22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT/FT Away/Away12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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