Netherlands · Eredivisie

Twente vs Ajax

Kick-off 14:30 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Twente 43.2% Draw 27.3% Ajax 29.5%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Ajax: 13 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.1%

Exact-score model probability

Twente

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 18:5 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.83

Ajax

W W W D D W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Twente 1wins ·1 draws ·Ajax 3wins

Twente 2-1 AjaxApr 4, 2026

Twente 2-3 AjaxOct 26, 2025

Twente 0-2 AjaxMay 18, 2025

Twente 2-2 AjaxNov 10, 2024

Twente 1-2 AjaxApr 14, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Twente win43.2%

Draw27.3%

Ajax win29.5%

Over 1.5 goals78.7%

Over 2.5 goals94.3%

Over 3.5 goals31.6%

Both teams to score90.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.4%

HT Over 0.5

90.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.585.3%

Goal in Both Halves85.3%

Home or Away (12)82.2%

Draw or Away (X2)68.5%

Draw No Bet - Away62.1%

Away Win51.0%

Home or Draw (1X)48.6%

Draw No Bet - Home37.9%

Home Win31.2%

Draw17.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.1%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals88.8%

Over 3.5 Goals76.0%

4+ Goals76.0%

Over 4.5 Goals59.2%

Under 5.5 Goals58.3%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Over 5.5 Goals41.7%

Under 4.5 Goals40.8%

2-4 Goals37.0%

3-4 Goals29.6%

Under 3.5 Goals24.0%

1-3 Goals23.1%

2-3 Goals20.3%

Exactly 3 Goals12.9%

Under 2.5 Goals11.2%

1-2 Goals10.2%

Exactly 2 Goals7.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals0.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.1%

Home Team to Score89.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.2%

Away Clean Sheet9.9%

Away Win to Nil9.4%

Home Clean Sheet5.5%

Home Win to Nil4.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.1%

Home Over 0.589.7%

Away Over 1.578.2%

Home Over 1.566.8%

Away Over 2.555.2%

Away 3+ Goals55.2%

Home Over 2.540.4%

Home 3+ Goals40.4%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 223.1%

Home Exactly 122.9%

Away Exactly 115.9%

Home Exactly 09.9%

Away Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away82.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away68.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home66.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)51.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)48.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home48.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)33.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away33.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)31.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.2%

Away to win by 3+19.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.3%

Away to win by 214.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.9%

Home to win by 113.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.0%

Home to win by 29.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.2%

Home to win by 3+8.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.1%

Away & Over 2.547.2%

Away & BTTS41.7%

Home & Over 2.528.5%

Home & BTTS26.2%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Draw & Over 2.513.2%

Away & No BTTS9.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.1%

Home & No BTTS4.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Under 2.53.9%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & Under 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.4%

HT Over 1.567.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Both Teams Score47.1%

HT Away Win42.7%

HT/FT Away/Away33.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.532.1%

HT Home Win29.6%

HT Draw27.7%

HT/FT Home/Home19.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.5%

HT Under 0.59.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners84.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners80.3%

Under 11.5 Corners71.1%

Over 8.5 Corners65.3%

Under 10.5 Corners59.9%

Over 9.5 Corners52.6%

Under 9.5 Corners47.4%

Over 10.5 Corners40.1%

Under 8.5 Corners34.7%

Over 11.5 Corners28.9%

Home Over 4.5 Corners20.6%

Home Most Corners9.0%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards94.6%

Under 4.5 Cards86.8%

Under 3.5 Cards72.1%

Under 2.5 Cards50.2%

Over 2.5 Cards49.8%

Over 3.5 Cards27.9%

Over 4.5 Cards13.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards10.7%

Over 5.5 Cards5.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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