UEFA Europa Conference League

Twente vs Pafos

Kick-off 21:00 · Thu, Nov 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Twente 82.5% Draw 12.8% Pafos 4.7%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 45%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

87%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 12.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Twente: 13 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.20 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.3%

Exact-score model probability

Twente

W W L D W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 18:5 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.83

Pafos

D D L W L

Form 1-2-2 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1.2 Conceded/game 1.4

📈 Probability Breakdown

Twente win82.5%

Draw12.8%

Pafos win4.7%

Over 1.5 goals87.4%

Over 2.5 goals68.4%

Over 3.5 goals46.8%

Both teams to score45.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

88.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.3%

Draw No Bet - Home93.9%

Home or Away (12)88.4%

Home Win83.0%

Both Halves Over 0.568.2%

Goal in Both Halves68.2%

Draw or Away (X2)16.7%

Draw11.3%

Exactly 1 Goal10.3%

Draw No Bet - Away6.1%

Away Win5.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Over 1.5 Goals86.4%

Under 5.5 Goals85.7%

Under 4.5 Goals72.3%

Over 2.5 Goals68.2%

2-4 Goals58.7%

Under 3.5 Goals53.3%

1-3 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals46.7%

4+ Goals46.7%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.7%

Under 2.5 Goals31.8%

1-2 Goals28.6%

Over 4.5 Goals27.7%

Exactly 3 Goals21.5%

Exactly 2 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals14.3%

Under 1.5 Goals13.6%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.9%

Home Clean Sheet53.0%

Home Win to Nil50.1%

Away Team to Score46.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.1%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.2%

Home Over 2.555.1%

Home 3+ Goals55.1%

Away Exactly 053.0%

Away Over 0.546.7%

Away Exactly 133.5%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Away Over 1.513.2%

Away Exactly 210.6%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Away Over 2.52.6%

Away 3+ Goals2.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)57.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away57.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.2%

Home to win by 3+42.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home23.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 221.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.2%

Away to win by 14.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.0%

Away to win by 21.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.562.2%

Home & No BTTS50.1%

BTTS & Over 2.538.8%

Home & BTTS32.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.529.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.2%

Home & Under 2.520.8%

Draw & BTTS8.4%

Draw & Under 2.58.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Draw & Over 2.53.0%

Away & Over 2.53.0%

Away & BTTS2.8%

Away & No BTTS2.6%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.6%

HT Home Win63.3%

HT/FT Home/Home60.6%

HT Under 1.552.9%

HT Over 1.547.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw28.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.8%

HT Both Teams Score18.0%

HT Away Win8.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.7%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

HT/FT Away/Away2.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

Corners (12)

Home Most Corners83.5%

Under 11.5 Corners83.4%

Under 10.5 Corners74.5%

Home Over 4.5 Corners71.5%

Under 9.5 Corners63.1%

Over 8.5 Corners50.0%

Under 8.5 Corners50.0%

Over 9.5 Corners36.9%

Over 10.5 Corners25.5%

Over 11.5 Corners16.6%

Away Over 4.5 Corners13.2%

Away Most Corners9.1%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards83.5%

Over 2.5 Cards70.9%

Under 4.5 Cards69.4%

Under 3.5 Cards50.1%

Over 3.5 Cards49.9%

Over 4.5 Cards30.6%

Under 2.5 Cards29.1%

Over 5.5 Cards16.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards14.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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