UEFA Europa Conference League

Twente vs Qarabag

Kick-off 19:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Twente 22.8% Draw 30.7% Qarabag 46.5%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 46%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 14.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Qarabag: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.1%

Exact-score model probability

Twente

W D L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Qarabag

W L D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:1 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Twente win22.8%

Draw30.7%

Qarabag win46.5%

Over 1.5 goals68.3%

Over 2.5 goals40.1%

Over 3.5 goals19.8%

Both teams to score46.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

91.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)75.6%

Home or Away (12)72.6%

Draw No Bet - Away66.4%

Home or Draw (1X)51.8%

Away Win48.2%

Both Halves Over 0.546.0%

Goal in Both Halves46.0%

Draw No Bet - Home33.6%

Draw27.4%

Home Win24.4%

Exactly 1 Goal23.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.1%

Under 4.5 Goals91.8%

Over 0.5 Goals89.9%

Under 3.5 Goals80.2%

1-3 Goals70.0%

Over 1.5 Goals66.7%

Under 2.5 Goals59.9%

2-4 Goals58.4%

Total Goals Even50.5%

1-2 Goals49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

2-3 Goals46.8%

Over 2.5 Goals40.1%

Under 1.5 Goals33.3%

3-4 Goals31.9%

Exactly 2 Goals26.6%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 3.5 Goals19.8%

4+ Goals19.8%

Under 0.5 Goals10.1%

Exactly 0 Goals10.1%

Over 4.5 Goals8.2%

Over 5.5 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score75.0%

Home Team to Score59.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)55.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)44.6%

Away Clean Sheet40.6%

Away Win to Nil30.4%

Home Clean Sheet25.0%

Home Win to Nil14.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.575.0%

Home Over 0.559.4%

Home Exactly 040.6%

Away Over 1.540.4%

Home Exactly 136.6%

Away Exactly 134.7%

Away Exactly 025.0%

Away Exactly 224.0%

Home Over 1.522.8%

Home Exactly 216.5%

Away Over 2.516.3%

Away 3+ Goals16.3%

Home Over 2.56.3%

Home 3+ Goals6.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home51.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.9%

Away to win by 124.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 116.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.5%

Away to win by 214.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.8%

Away to win by 3+8.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.1%

Home to win by 26.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.1%

Home to win by 3+2.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.2%

BTTS & Over 2.531.9%

Away & No BTTS30.4%

Away & Over 2.524.4%

Away & Under 2.523.8%

Draw & Under 2.522.8%

Away & BTTS17.7%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Home & No BTTS14.8%

Home & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Home & Over 2.511.2%

Home & BTTS9.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.572.5%

HT Over 0.564.3%

HT Draw45.3%

2nd Half More Goals41.5%

HT Under 0.535.7%

HT Away Win34.6%

1st Half More Goals30.2%

HT/FT Away/Away28.8%

Equal Goals Each Half28.2%

HT Over 1.527.5%

HT Home Win20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.3%

HT Both Teams Score15.5%

HT/FT Home/Home13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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