Italy · Serie A

Udinese vs Lecce

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Udinese 53.8% Draw 27.1% Lecce 19.1%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

81%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

66%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Lecce: 4 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Udinese 4 wins, 0 draws, Lecce 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.2%

Exact-score model probability

Udinese

L L L L W D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 9:13 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.17

Lecce

L L W L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Udinese 4wins ·0 draws ·Lecce 1wins

Udinese 1-2 LecceFeb 8, 2026

Udinese 3-2 LecceOct 25, 2025

Udinese 1-0 LecceFeb 21, 2025

Udinese 1-0 LecceOct 5, 2024

Udinese 2-0 LecceMay 13, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Udinese win53.8%

Draw27.1%

Lecce win19.1%

Over 1.5 goals65.6%

Over 2.5 goals63.9%

Over 3.5 goals18.7%

Both teams to score66.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

86.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Home or Draw (1X)69.6%

Draw No Bet - Home60.0%

Both Halves Over 0.559.1%

Goal in Both Halves59.1%

Draw or Away (X2)54.5%

Home Win45.5%

Draw No Bet - Away40.0%

Away Win30.4%

Draw24.1%

Exactly 1 Goal15.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.8%

Under 5.5 Goals92.1%

Under 4.5 Goals82.3%

Over 1.5 Goals79.4%

Under 3.5 Goals65.7%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals60.5%

Over 2.5 Goals56.7%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals45.1%

Under 2.5 Goals43.3%

3-4 Goals38.9%

1-2 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals34.3%

4+ Goals34.3%

Exactly 2 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals20.6%

Over 4.5 Goals17.7%

Over 5.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.2%

Exactly 0 Goals5.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.8%

Away Team to Score72.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.1%

Home Clean Sheet27.1%

Home Win to Nil21.9%

Away Clean Sheet19.2%

Away Win to Nil14.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.8%

Away Over 0.572.9%

Home Over 1.549.1%

Away Over 1.537.5%

Away Exactly 135.4%

Home Exactly 131.7%

Away Exactly 027.1%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 223.1%

Home Over 2.523.0%

Home 3+ Goals23.0%

Home Exactly 019.2%

Away Over 2.514.4%

Away 3+ Goals14.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home86.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)54.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away54.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)45.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 213.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home9.9%

Home to win by 3+9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.6%

Away to win by 28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.5%

Away to win by 3+4.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.547.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.1%

Home & Over 2.529.9%

Home & BTTS23.6%

Home & No BTTS21.9%

Away & Over 2.519.1%

Draw & BTTS18.9%

Draw & Under 2.516.4%

Away & BTTS16.4%

Home & Under 2.515.7%

Away & No BTTS14.0%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.573.6%

HT Under 1.561.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.4%

HT Draw39.3%

HT Over 1.538.4%

HT Home Win35.1%

1st Half More Goals31.4%

HT/FT Home/Home27.8%

HT Under 0.526.4%

HT Away Win25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half24.2%

HT Both Teams Score23.3%

HT/FT Away/Away17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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