Germany · Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

Kick-off 15:30 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Union Berlin 45.1% Draw 27.1% 1. FC Köln 27.9%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Union Berlin 2 wins, 2 draws, 1. FC Köln 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Union Berlin

D D W L L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:15 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 2.5

1. FC Köln

D L W L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Union Berlin 2wins ·2 draws ·1. FC Köln 1wins

Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC KölnMay 2, 2026

Union Berlin 1-0 1. FC KölnDec 20, 2025

Union Berlin 2-3 1. FC KölnMay 11, 2024

Union Berlin 2-0 1. FC KölnDec 20, 2023

Union Berlin 0-0 1. FC KölnMar 4, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union Berlin win45.1%

Draw27.1%

1. FC Köln win27.9%

Over 1.5 goals73.9%

Over 2.5 goals94.8%

Over 3.5 goals26.5%

Both teams to score82.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

88.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.4%

Home or Away (12)86.1%

Draw No Bet - Home85.2%

Both Halves Over 0.582.6%

Goal in Both Halves82.6%

Home Win73.3%

Draw or Away (X2)25.9%

Draw No Bet - Away14.8%

Draw13.1%

Away Win12.8%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals85.5%

Over 3.5 Goals70.6%

4+ Goals70.6%

Under 5.5 Goals64.9%

Over 4.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals47.4%

2-4 Goals42.0%

Over 5.5 Goals35.1%

3-4 Goals32.9%

Under 3.5 Goals29.4%

1-3 Goals27.8%

2-3 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals14.8%

Under 2.5 Goals14.5%

1-2 Goals12.9%

Exactly 2 Goals9.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.8%

Away Team to Score76.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.3%

Home Clean Sheet22.9%

Home Win to Nil22.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.4%

Away Win to Nil2.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.8%

Home Over 1.584.4%

Away Over 0.576.3%

Home Over 2.565.1%

Home 3+ Goals65.1%

Away Over 1.542.8%

Away Exactly 133.6%

Away Exactly 224.6%

Away Exactly 022.9%

Home Exactly 219.4%

Away Over 2.518.1%

Away 3+ Goals18.1%

Home Exactly 111.4%

Home Exactly 03.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home55.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)43.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away43.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.4%

Home to win by 3+37.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.5%

Home to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 17.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.4%

Away to win by 23.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.9%

Home & Over 2.566.2%

Home & BTTS51.2%

Home & No BTTS22.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.6%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

Away & Over 2.510.8%

Away & BTTS10.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.9%

Away & No BTTS2.6%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.8%

HT Over 1.564.2%

HT Home Win58.2%

HT/FT Home/Home53.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.4%

HT Both Teams Score37.8%

HT Under 1.535.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.7%

Equal Goals Each Half18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win16.0%

HT Under 0.511.2%

HT/FT Away/Away7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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