Germany · Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Union Berlin 17.3% Draw 23.1% Borussia Dortmund 59.6%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Union Berlin

W L L L D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:17 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2.83

Borussia Dortmund

L D W W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Union Berlin 1wins ·0 draws ·Borussia Dortmund 4wins

Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia DortmundJan 24, 2026

Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia DortmundAug 31, 2025

Union Berlin 0-6 Borussia DortmundFeb 22, 2025

Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia DortmundOct 5, 2024

Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia DortmundMar 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union Berlin win17.3%

Draw23.1%

Borussia Dortmund win59.6%

Over 1.5 goals78.7%

Over 2.5 goals87.0%

Over 3.5 goals32.3%

Both teams to score80.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

90.6%

HT Over 0.5

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.1%

Home or Away (12)85.0%

Draw No Bet - Away83.1%

Both Halves Over 0.580.0%

Goal in Both Halves80.0%

Away Win70.6%

Home or Draw (1X)28.9%

Draw No Bet - Home16.9%

Draw14.5%

Home Win14.4%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals82.7%

Under 5.5 Goals69.9%

Over 3.5 Goals66.1%

4+ Goals66.1%

Under 4.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals47.3%

2-4 Goals46.4%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 3.5 Goals33.9%

1-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals30.1%

2-3 Goals27.5%

Under 2.5 Goals17.3%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.7%

Exactly 2 Goals10.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.1%

Home Team to Score75.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.7%

Away Clean Sheet23.8%

Away Win to Nil22.8%

Home Clean Sheet4.4%

Home Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.1%

Away Over 1.581.4%

Home Over 0.575.7%

Away Over 2.559.9%

Away 3+ Goals59.9%

Home Over 1.541.6%

Home Exactly 134.1%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 023.8%

Away Exactly 221.5%

Home Over 2.517.3%

Home 3+ Goals17.3%

Away Exactly 113.7%

Away Exactly 04.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home90.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)70.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home66.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away51.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)47.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home47.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.3%

Away to win by 3+33.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)28.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home28.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.7%

Away to win by 118.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.6%

Away to win by 218.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw8.5%

Home to win by 18.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.0%

Home to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.6%

Away & Over 2.562.2%

Away & BTTS47.8%

Away & No BTTS22.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

Home & Over 2.511.8%

Home & BTTS11.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Away & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.8%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Home & No BTTS3.3%

Home & Under 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Over 1.560.7%

HT Away Win55.5%

HT/FT Away/Away49.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.539.3%

HT Both Teams Score35.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT Home Win17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.4%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT/FT Home/Home8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.5%

HT/FT Home/Away4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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