Germany · Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Kick-off 19:30 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Union Berlin 43.3% Draw 36.1% FC Schalke 04 20.7%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Union Berlin: 8 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Union Berlin

L D W W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:13 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2.17

FC Schalke 04

D L W L W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 4:10 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Union Berlin 1wins ·1 draws ·FC Schalke 04 0wins

Union Berlin 0-0 FC Schalke 04Feb 19, 2023

Union Berlin 6-1 FC Schalke 04Aug 27, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union Berlin win43.3%

Draw36.1%

FC Schalke 04 win20.7%

Over 1.5 goals48.2%

Over 2.5 goals95.4%

Over 3.5 goals7.8%

Both teams to score85.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Draw No Bet - Home

89.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home89.9%

Home or Draw (1X)89.0%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.586.7%

Goal in Both Halves86.7%

Home Win79.0%

Draw or Away (X2)19.0%

Draw10.1%

Draw No Bet - Away10.1%

Away Win8.9%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals88.7%

Over 3.5 Goals77.0%

4+ Goals77.0%

Over 4.5 Goals61.1%

Under 5.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Total Goals Odd48.9%

Over 5.5 Goals43.9%

Under 4.5 Goals38.9%

2-4 Goals34.0%

3-4 Goals27.6%

Under 3.5 Goals23.0%

1-3 Goals20.5%

2-3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

Under 2.5 Goals11.3%

1-2 Goals8.8%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score75.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)26.3%

Home Clean Sheet22.8%

Home Win to Nil22.4%

Away Clean Sheet1.9%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.6%

Away Over 0.575.1%

Home Over 2.573.8%

Home 3+ Goals73.8%

Away Over 1.541.9%

Away Exactly 133.2%

Away Exactly 224.2%

Away Exactly 022.8%

Away Over 2.517.7%

Away 3+ Goals17.7%

Home Exactly 214.8%

Home Exactly 17.5%

Home Exactly 01.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home64.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home46.8%

Home to win by 3+46.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)30.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home30.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 22.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.573.8%

BTTS & Over 2.571.1%

Home & BTTS56.6%

Home & No BTTS22.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.5%

Draw & BTTS9.7%

Away & Over 2.57.8%

Away & BTTS7.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Home & Under 2.55.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.0%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.570.1%

HT Home Win64.6%

HT/FT Home/Home60.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score40.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.9%

HT Draw22.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.4%

HT Away Win13.1%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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