Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

Kick-off 18:30 · Sun, Nov 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

62% confidence

Union St. Gilloise 61.6% Draw 25.5% Genk 12.9%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.4%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Union St. Gilloise 4 wins, 0 draws, Genk 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.4%

Exact-score model probability

Union St. Gilloise

D D L W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Genk

W L D W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

Union St. Gilloise 4wins ·0 draws ·Genk 1wins

Union St. Gilloise 2-1 GenkMar 7, 2026

Union St. Gilloise 2-1 GenkSep 21, 2025

Union St. Gilloise 1-0 GenkMay 3, 2025

Union St. Gilloise 2-1 GenkApr 20, 2025

Union St. Gilloise 1-2 GenkMar 15, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union St. Gilloise win61.6%

Draw25.5%

Genk win12.9%

Over 1.5 goals69.0%

Over 2.5 goals62.8%

Over 3.5 goals21.0%

Both teams to score58.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)84.2%

Draw No Bet - Home80.4%

Home or Away (12)80.2%

Home Win64.5%

Both Halves Over 0.561.5%

Goal in Both Halves61.5%

Draw or Away (X2)35.5%

Draw19.7%

Draw No Bet - Away19.6%

Away Win15.8%

Exactly 1 Goal14.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.6%

Over 1.5 Goals81.4%

Under 4.5 Goals79.9%

Under 3.5 Goals62.6%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.8%

1-3 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.0%

Under 2.5 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.4%

4+ Goals37.4%

1-2 Goals35.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals20.1%

Under 1.5 Goals18.6%

Over 5.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.2%

Away Team to Score61.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.7%

Home Clean Sheet38.5%

Home Win to Nil33.9%

Away Clean Sheet11.8%

Away Win to Nil7.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.2%

Home Over 1.563.0%

Away Over 0.561.5%

Away Exactly 038.5%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Over 2.536.1%

Home 3+ Goals36.1%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 125.2%

Away Over 1.524.8%

Away Exactly 217.5%

Home Exactly 011.8%

Away Over 2.57.2%

Away 3+ Goals7.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)78.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away78.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)64.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.6%

Home to win by 123.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home21.4%

Home to win by 3+21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.5%

Home to win by 219.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.5%

Away to win by 110.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.4%

Away to win by 3+1.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.0%

Home & Over 2.544.4%

Home & No BTTS33.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.0%

Home & BTTS30.5%

Home & Under 2.520.1%

Draw & BTTS15.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.8%

Away & Over 2.59.4%

BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Away & BTTS8.5%

Away & No BTTS7.2%

Away & Under 2.56.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.2%

HT Under 1.559.4%

HT Home Win47.7%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT/FT Home/Home42.4%

HT Over 1.540.6%

HT Draw36.2%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.8%

Equal Goals Each Half23.6%

HT Both Teams Score21.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.9%

HT Away Win16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.4%

HT/FT Away/Away8.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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