Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise vs Lommel United

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

58% confidence

Union St. Gilloise 58.0% Draw 28.4% Lommel United 13.6%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lommel United: 9 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Union St. Gilloise

D L W D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Lommel United

L D D W W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union St. Gilloise win58.0%

Draw28.4%

Lommel United win13.6%

Over 1.5 goals62.0%

Over 2.5 goals93.3%

Over 3.5 goals15.4%

Both teams to score85.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.4%

Goal in Both Halves89.4%

Home or Away (12)85.3%

Home or Draw (1X)81.8%

Draw No Bet - Home80.7%

Home Win68.8%

Draw or Away (X2)29.4%

Draw No Bet - Away19.3%

Away Win16.4%

Draw12.9%

Exactly 1 Goal1.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.3%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals82.3%

4+ Goals82.3%

Over 4.5 Goals68.6%

Over 5.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.1%

Total Goals Even49.1%

Under 5.5 Goals47.7%

Under 4.5 Goals31.4%

2-4 Goals27.7%

3-4 Goals23.0%

Under 3.5 Goals17.7%

1-3 Goals15.6%

2-3 Goals14.0%

Exactly 3 Goals9.3%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

1-2 Goals6.3%

Exactly 2 Goals4.7%

Under 1.5 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.3%

Home Clean Sheet12.7%

Home Win to Nil12.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.1%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.588.0%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 2.572.4%

Home 3+ Goals72.4%

Away Over 1.559.6%

Away Over 2.533.0%

Away 3+ Goals33.0%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 125.9%

Home Exactly 215.6%

Away Exactly 012.7%

Home Exactly 18.1%

Home Exactly 02.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home81.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away76.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.2%

Home to win by 3+36.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.6%

Home to win by 216.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 116.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 18.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.3%

Away to win by 3+3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.6%

Home & Over 2.565.8%

Home & BTTS56.4%

Away & Over 2.515.3%

Away & BTTS14.6%

Draw & BTTS12.7%

Home & No BTTS12.4%

Draw & Over 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.4%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.0%

HT Over 1.574.5%

HT Home Win56.7%

2nd Half More Goals51.2%

HT/FT Home/Home50.4%

HT Both Teams Score49.7%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.525.5%

HT Draw23.5%

HT Away Win19.7%

Equal Goals Each Half16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT Under 0.57.0%

HT/FT Away/Home6.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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