Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Kick-off 15:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

75% confidence

Union St. Gilloise 75.3% Draw 18.8% OH Leuven 5.9%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Union St. Gilloise: 9 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.1%

Exact-score model probability

Union St. Gilloise

D D L W D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 15:8 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.33

OH Leuven

L L L D W L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Union St. Gilloise 3wins ·2 draws ·OH Leuven 0wins

Union St. Gilloise 0-0 OH LeuvenJan 24, 2026

Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH LeuvenAug 3, 2025

Union St. Gilloise 1-0 OH LeuvenJan 19, 2025

Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH LeuvenNov 24, 2024

Union St. Gilloise 2-0 OH LeuvenMar 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Union St. Gilloise win75.3%

Draw18.8%

OH Leuven win5.9%

Over 1.5 goals72.3%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.6%

Both teams to score71.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

90.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

HT Over 0.5

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home94.3%

Home or Draw (1X)93.4%

Home or Away (12)90.1%

Home Win85.0%

Both Halves Over 0.581.1%

Goal in Both Halves81.1%

Draw or Away (X2)13.5%

Draw8.4%

Draw No Bet - Away5.7%

Away Win5.1%

Exactly 1 Goal4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals83.1%

Under 5.5 Goals68.7%

Over 3.5 Goals67.2%

4+ Goals67.2%

Under 4.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Over 4.5 Goals48.7%

2-4 Goals44.6%

3-4 Goals34.4%

Under 3.5 Goals32.8%

Over 5.5 Goals31.3%

1-3 Goals30.4%

2-3 Goals26.0%

Under 2.5 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.9%

1-2 Goals14.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.2%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score59.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)58.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)41.5%

Home Clean Sheet38.6%

Home Win to Nil37.7%

Away Clean Sheet2.4%

Away Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.587.3%

Home Over 2.570.7%

Home 3+ Goals70.7%

Away Over 0.559.9%

Away Exactly 038.6%

Away Exactly 136.2%

Away Over 1.523.7%

Away Exactly 216.9%

Home Exactly 216.6%

Home Exactly 18.9%

Away Over 2.56.8%

Away 3+ Goals6.8%

Home Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)89.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)85.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home70.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away64.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home52.3%

Home to win by 3+52.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home34.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away27.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 114.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)13.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away13.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw10.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.6%

Away to win by 13.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.1%

Away to win by 21.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.575.0%

BTTS & Over 2.555.2%

Home & BTTS47.3%

Home & No BTTS37.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.527.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.2%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & BTTS7.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Over 2.53.8%

Away & BTTS3.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS1.4%

Away & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.8%

HT Home Win68.8%

HT/FT Home/Home66.0%

HT Over 1.562.2%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Under 1.537.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score28.0%

HT Draw22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.6%

HT Under 0.512.2%

HT Away Win8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Away/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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